Expected value (EV) calculator
A bet is only good if it wins more often than its price requires. Enter the odds and the win probability you believe in; you get the expected profit per $100 and a cautious stake size. The hard part is the probability — that is what a model is for.
How it works
What is expected value in betting?
The average profit per bet if you could make the same bet many times: win probability x profit, minus loss probability x stake. Positive EV means the price is better than the true chance; most bets at a sportsbook are negative EV.
What is the Kelly criterion?
A formula for the stake that grows a bankroll fastest given your edge: (decimal odds x p - 1) / (decimal odds - 1). It assumes your probability is right, so most bettors stake a quarter of it to survive being wrong.
Where does the win probability come from?
That is the whole game. It can come from a model, from the no-vig price at a sharper book, or from a blend of the two — which is how the numbers on this site are built. Guessing it generously makes every bet look good.
A calculator tells you what a price needs. Our model estimates what the game will actually do — every NFL game priced against ten sportsbooks, one pick free each week, every pick graded in public.
For information only. No calculator, model or pick guarantees a profit; bet only what you can afford to lose. 21+ and only where sports betting is legal. Gambling problem? 1-800-GAMBLER.