1BUF @ LV Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET
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The side, the price, the book, our number and the reason are open to members. The result is posted here for everyone after the game.
NFL · 2026 · Week 6
Card of the week
The board prices every line; the card is what we would actually bet. Three to five plays, one per game, sized in units, each with the reason in plain numbers. It is posted with the week's first board, never edited afterwards, and graded here in units — wins and losses alike.
Card record this season: 7–8, -2.71 units. Small sample; it stays posted either way.
5 plays9 units at risk1 unit = 1% of your bankroll
2BAL @ CLE Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
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The side, the price, the book, our number and the reason are open to members. The result is posted here for everyone after the game.
3CAR @ PHI Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
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The side, the price, the book, our number and the reason are open to members. The result is posted here for everyone after the game.
4CHI @ ATL Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
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The side, the price, the book, our number and the reason are open to members. The result is posted here for everyone after the game.
5HOU @ JAX Sun Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET
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The side, the price, the book, our number and the reason are open to members. The result is posted here for everyone after the game.
Open the card — from $19/month every board, the card and the full ledger
Graded · open to everyone
Week 5 card — 3–2, +0.51 units
| Play | Price | Units | Our number | Result | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL ML BAL @ ATL | -125 Caesars | 2 | 61.0% | WIN +1.60u | closed +150 · missed the close by 75¢ |
| NE ML LV @ NE | -192 DraftKings | 2 | 68.7% | WIN +1.04u | closed -185 · missed the close by 7¢ |
| Over 40 CLE @ NYJ | -108 BetMGM | 2 | 55.6% | LOSS -2.00u | closed 40 -109 · beat the close by 1¢ |
| JAX -6.5 PHI @ JAX | -108 FanDuel | 1.5 | 55.3% | LOSS -1.50u | closed -7.5 -105 · beat the close by 1 pt |
| MIN -1.5 MIN @ NO | -110 Caesars | 1.5 | 55.5% | WIN +1.36u | closed -2.5 -103 · beat the close by 1 pt |
Graded · open to everyone
Week 4 card — 1–4, -4.10 units
| Play | Price | Units | Our number | Result | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 38.5 MIA @ MIN | -110 DraftKings | 2 | 56.6% | LOSS -2.00u | closed 38.5 -108 · missed the close by 2¢ |
| NYG +2.5 ARI @ NYG | -105 ESPN Bet | 2 | 55.2% | WIN +1.90u | closed 2.5 -105 · same number |
| Under 47.5 ATL @ NO | -105 Caesars | 1.5 | 54.2% | LOSS -1.50u | closed 47.5 -105 · same number |
| TB ML GB @ TB | +155 Fanatics | 1.5 | 42.3% | LOSS -1.50u | closed +142 · beat the close by 13¢ |
| HOU ML DAL @ HOU | -150 ESPN Bet | 1 | 61.4% | LOSS -1.00u | closed -148 · missed the close by 2¢ |
Graded · open to everyone
Week 3 card — 3–2, +0.88 units
| Play | Price | Units | Our number | Result | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF -7 LAC @ BUF | -108 BetMGM | 2 | 56.1% | WIN +1.85u | closed -7 -105 · missed the close by 3¢ |
| NO -3 LV @ NO | -115 FanDuel | 2 | 57.2% | LOSS -2.00u | closed -3.5 -102 · beat the close by 0.5 pts |
| BAL ML BAL @ DAL | -146 FanDuel | 1.5 | 62.0% | WIN +1.03u | closed -162 · beat the close by 16¢ |
| NYG ML TEN @ NYG | -150 ESPN Bet | 1.5 | 62.2% | WIN +1.00u | closed -130 · missed the close by 20¢ |
| TB +1.5 MIN @ TB | -106 Caesars | 1 | 53.5% | LOSS -1.00u | closed 1.5 -113 · beat the close by 7¢ |
Questions
How the card is built
What gets a play onto the card?
A real sportsbook price between -250 and +250 on a game that hasn't started; an expected value of at least 2% by our blended number; and the raw model and the market within 15 points of each other — bigger disagreements are far more often the model missing something than the market being wrong. One play per game, at most two totals, three to five plays in all.
What is a unit?
One percent of the money you have set aside for betting. Sizes come from the board's quarter-Kelly stake, rounded to half units and kept between 0.5 and 2 — a bigger edge at a fair price gets a bigger stake, and nothing gets a big one.
Do you ever change the card?
No. It is stored when it is posted and graded at the price shown, even if the line moves or a player is ruled out. If the number you can get is worse than the one shown, the bet is worse than the card says — pass.
Will you tell me if a line moves?
Yes, if you turn on alerts from your account page. Members get a phone alert when the line on a card play moves a full point, or the price moves 20¢ at the same line — at most once a day per play, and it says whether the new number is better or worse than the one we published. The card itself is never edited.
Is this a guarantee?
No. These are probabilities with a modest edge at best; losing weeks are normal and the card will have them. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook. Bet only what you can afford to lose, 21+ and only where sports betting is legal. Gambling problem? 1-800-GAMBLER.