NFL picks, graded in public
One page per week: the free pick and the reasoning behind it, the sealed board members see, and — once the games are played — how every pick landed. The model is a secret. The record isn't.
Every free pick, and how it landed
Free picks this season: 7–2, +1.61 units at one unit a pick. Every one is listed — none are dropped.
| Week | Free pick | Price | Our probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · Week 7 | LA ML LA @ LV | -210 | 70.2% | not played yetnow -170 · missed the current price by 40¢ |
| 2026 · Week 6 board: value bets 4–7, safest bets 7–6 |
BUF ML BUF @ LV | -225 | 73.4% | WIN BUF 33 – LV 30closed -230 · beat the close by 5¢ |
| 2026 · Week 5 board: value bets 9–5, safest bets 10–5 |
NE ML LV @ NE | -192 | 68.7% | WIN LV 17 – NE 45closed -185 · missed the close by 7¢ |
| 2026 · Week 4 board: value bets 7–7, safest bets 10–6 |
CHI ML NYJ @ CHI | -175 | 68.8% | WIN NYJ 12 – CHI 23closed -178 · beat the close by 3¢ |
| SF ML DEN @ SF | -152 | 60.8% | WIN DEN 14 – SF 24closed -152 · same number | |
| ATL ML ATL @ NO | +107 | 48.7% | WIN ATL 45 – NO 24closed +107 · same number | |
| 2026 · Week 3 board: value bets 8–8, safest bets 8–8 |
NO ML LV @ NO | -168 | 67.2% | LOSS LV 35 – NO 27closed -175 · beat the close by 7¢ |
| 2026 · Week 2 board: value bets 5–11, safest bets 10–6 |
SF ML | -910 | 83.3% | WIN MIA 13 – SF 35 |
| Over 48 NYG @ LA | -108 | 54.1% | LOSS NYG 6 – LA 28closed 47.5 -105 · missed the close by 0.5 pts | |
| 2026 · Week 1 board: value bets 6–9, safest bets 8–8 |
JAX ML | -425 | 83.7% | WIN CLE 10 – JAX 34 |
What hit last week
These are the highlights, not the record. The whole week — every loss included — is one click away: Week 6, pick by pick →
The whole board, in units
One unit per bet at the published price. 91 games is a small sample; it says little either way yet, and it stays posted regardless.
Card of the week: 8–12–1, -8.32 units. Every card, play by play →
Against the closing line
Wins and losses take hundreds of bets to mean anything. Beating the closing line shows up sooner: if the price we posted is better than the market's last price before kickoff, the market moved our way. Counted from the first version of each pick we published, against our final refresh before the game.