Broncos vs Chargers prediction
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL Week 5. Our model projects the game, the sportsbooks price it, and the two numbers sit side by side below. The priced plays — the safest side, the value bet, the win + kicker combo and the props — are on the members' board; the projection is public, and every pick is graded here after the game.
Denver Broncos 23 · Los Angeles Chargers 17
Winner called by the model: YES — the projection was Denver Broncos by 0.5.
| Result | Pick | Price | Our probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | DEN ML safest side | -180 | 58.4% |
| LOSS | LAC ML value bet | +155 | 41.6% |
Graded one unit per bet at the published price, exactly as it appeared on the board before kickoff. The whole week, pick by pick →
Broncos 22, Chargers 21
Broncos by 0.5 · 43 total points
The model projects Denver Broncos to beat Los Angeles Chargers 22–21; the market agrees on the favorite and prices the spread at 3.5. On the total, the model's 43 sits above the market's 42.0. The raw model gives Denver Broncos a 52.7% chance to win; the moneyline price implies 62.1%. We never bet the raw model — the published probability on every play blends it with the market, and that blended number is what the board shows members.
A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites lose. 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Where the line has gone
First posted on our board Tue Oct 6; "now" is our latest refresh. A line that moves toward a side generally means more money has come in on that side.
What the box priced
Every play below carries the blended probability, the price it was published at and the edge over that price. For visitors the plays stay sealed; a free account opens the week's free pick, a membership opens all of it.
| Play | Bet | Price | Our probability | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safest side | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Value bet | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Spread lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Total lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Win + kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
Projected stat lines
| Player | Team | Pos | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | DEN | QB | ████████████ |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN | RB | ████████████ |
| Jaylen Waddle | DEN | WR | ████████████ |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | ████████████ |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | ████████████ |
| Omarion Hampton | LAC | RB | ████████████ |
| Tre Harris | LAC | WR | ████████████ |
| Ladd McConkey | LAC | WR | ████████████ |
See plans — from $19/month monthly or annual; one plan opens every board
Injuries and news the board saw
| Team | Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Pat Bryant WR | Doubtful | Ankle |
| DEN | Pat Surtain II CB | Doubtful | Ankle |
| DEN | Dondrea Tillman LB | Questionable | Hamstring |
| DEN | Riley Moss CB | Questionable | Ribs |
| LAC | Rashawn Slater OT | Out | Ankle |
| LAC | Brenen Thompson WR | Questionable | Quadriceps |
| LAC | Charlie Kolar TE | Questionable | Forearm |
| LAC | Dalvin Tomlinson DT | Questionable | Hamstring |
| LAC | Derwin James Jr. S | Questionable | Hamstring |
| LAC | Donte Jackson CB | Questionable | Hamstring |
| LAC | Joe Alt OT | Questionable | Neck |
| LAC | Kayode Awosika G | Questionable | Lower Leg |
The board rebuilds every morning and again before kickoff, so injuries and line moves feed the numbers above; this page shows the board as last published (2026-10-07).
About this prediction
What is the model's projected score for Broncos vs Chargers?
Denver Broncos 22, Los Angeles Chargers 21 — Denver Broncos by 0.5 points and 43 total points. The market line when the board was built was Denver Broncos by 3.5 with a total of 42.0.
Who does the model favor to win Broncos vs Chargers?
Denver Broncos. The raw model gives them a 52.7% chance; the moneyline price of -180 implies 62.1%. The priced play on this game — the safest side, blended with the market — is on the members' board.
Is this pick guaranteed?
No. A probability is not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites pay short prices for exactly that reason. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook; no pick, parlay or strategy is guaranteed to profit, and past results — including the 2018–2025 test — do not predict future ones. Bet only what you can afford to lose, 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Other games this week
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys Thu Oct 8 · 8:15 PM ET
- Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons Sun Oct 11 · 8:20 PM ET
- Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
- Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
- Cleveland Browns at New York Jets Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
- Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET
- Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
- Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
- Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
- Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
- New York Giants at Washington Commanders Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
- Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars Sun Oct 11 · 9:30 AM ET
- San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET
- Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams Mon Oct 12 · 8:15 PM ET