Ravens vs Falcons prediction
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons, NFL Week 5. Our model projects the game, the sportsbooks price it, and the two numbers sit side by side below. The priced plays — the safest side, the value bet, the win + kicker combo and the props — are on the members' board; the projection is public, and every pick is graded here after the game.
Baltimore Ravens 30 · Atlanta Falcons 23
Winner called by the model: YES — the projection was Baltimore Ravens by 2.1.
| Result | Pick | Price | Our probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | BAL +3.5 safest side | -115 | 57.7% |
| WIN | BAL ML value bet | +150 | 46.8% |
Graded one unit per bet at the published price, exactly as it appeared on the board before kickoff. The whole week, pick by pick →
Ravens 26, Falcons 24
Ravens by 2.1 · 49 total points
The model projects Baltimore Ravens to beat Atlanta Falcons 26–24, while the market makes Atlanta Falcons the favorite by 3.5. On the total, the model's 49 sits above the market's 43.5. The raw model gives Baltimore Ravens a 58.7% chance to win; the moneyline price implies 38.9%. We never bet the raw model — the published probability on every play blends it with the market, and that blended number is what the board shows members.
A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites lose. 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Where the line has gone
First posted on our board Tue Oct 6; "now" is our latest refresh. A line that moves toward a side generally means more money has come in on that side.
What the box priced
Every play below carries the blended probability, the price it was published at and the edge over that price. For visitors the plays stay sealed; a free account opens the week's free pick, a membership opens all of it.
| Play | Bet | Price | Our probability | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safest side | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Value bet | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Spread lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Total lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Win + kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
Projected stat lines
| Player | Team | Pos | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | QB | ████████████ |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | ████████████ |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | ████████████ |
| Rashod Bateman | BAL | WR | ████████████ |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | QB | ████████████ |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | ████████████ |
| Drake London | ATL | WR | ████████████ |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL | TE | ████████████ |
This game is a leg in 5 tickets on the board this week: Spread & total stack · 3 legs (3 legs, +600); +1000 ticket (5 legs, +1001); +2500 ticket (7 legs, +2698); Moonshot · +5000 (8 legs, +5024); Wildcard parlay (5 legs, +1504).
See plans — from $19/month monthly or annual; one plan opens every board
Injuries and news the board saw
| Team | Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Jake Matthews OT | Questionable | Groin |
| ATL | Za'Darius Smith DE | Questionable | Concussion |
| BAL | Durham Smythe TE | Out | Achilles |
| BAL | Andrew Vorhees G | Questionable | Foot |
| BAL | Chris Moore WR | Questionable | Ankle |
| BAL | Lamar Jackson QB | Questionable | Ankle |
| BAL | Marlon Humphrey CB | Questionable | Calf |
| BAL | Ronnie Stanley OT | Questionable | Toe |
| BAL | Trey Hendrickson LB | Questionable | Finger |
- Sources: Ravens QB Jackson has ankle sprain, slim chance to play Week 5 ESPN
- 'Phenomenal' Penix continues winning ways with resurgent Falcons ESPN
- 😈 Falcons' jab at Saints leads NFL Week 4 trolls ESPN
- Bijan Robinson, Falcons make NFC South statement in rout of Saints ESPN
- The punt block that unified New Orleans and a Falcons-Saints rivalry ESPN
The board rebuilds every morning and again before kickoff, so injuries and line moves feed the numbers above; this page shows the board as last published (2026-10-07).
About this prediction
What is the model's projected score for Ravens vs Falcons?
Baltimore Ravens 26, Atlanta Falcons 24 — Baltimore Ravens by 2.1 points and 49 total points. The market line when the board was built was Atlanta Falcons by 3.5 with a total of 43.5.
Who does the model favor to win Ravens vs Falcons?
Baltimore Ravens. The raw model gives them a 58.7% chance; the moneyline price of +150 implies 38.9%. The priced play on this game — the safest side, blended with the market — is on the members' board.
Is this pick guaranteed?
No. A probability is not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites pay short prices for exactly that reason. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook; no pick, parlay or strategy is guaranteed to profit, and past results — including the 2018–2025 test — do not predict future ones. Bet only what you can afford to lose, 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Other games this week
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys Thu Oct 8 · 8:15 PM ET
- Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
- Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
- Cleveland Browns at New York Jets Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
- Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers Sun Oct 11 · 4:05 PM ET
- Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET
- Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
- Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
- Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
- Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
- New York Giants at Washington Commanders Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
- Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars Sun Oct 11 · 9:30 AM ET
- San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET
- Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams Mon Oct 12 · 8:15 PM ET