Raiders vs Patriots prediction
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots, NFL Week 5. Our model projects the game, the sportsbooks price it, and the two numbers sit side by side below. The priced plays — the safest side, the value bet, the win + kicker combo and the props — are on the members' board; the projection is public, and every pick is graded here after the game.
Las Vegas Raiders 17 · New England Patriots 45
Winner called by the model: YES — the projection was New England Patriots by 8.5.
| Result | Pick | Price | Our probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | NE ML safest side | -185 | 68.9% |
| WIN | NE -3.5 value bet | -110 | 56.2% |
Graded one unit per bet at the published price, exactly as it appeared on the board before kickoff. The whole week, pick by pick →
Patriots 26, Raiders 17
Patriots by 8.5 · 43 total points
The model projects New England Patriots to beat Las Vegas Raiders 26–17; the market agrees on the favorite and prices the spread at 3.5. On the total, the model's 43 sits below the market's 45.0. The raw model gives New England Patriots a 77.3% chance to win; the moneyline price implies 63.2%. We never bet the raw model — the published probability on every play blends it with the market, and that blended number is what the board shows members.
A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites lose. 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
NE ML -192 at DraftKings
The line since we posted it: closed -185 · missed the close by 7¢.
Why this is the free pick, in full → · Get the free pick by email every week
Where the line has gone
First posted on our board Tue Oct 6; "now" is our latest refresh. A line that moves toward a side generally means more money has come in on that side.
What the box priced
Every play below carries the blended probability, the price it was published at and the edge over that price. The free pick is open to everyone; the rest stays sealed until you're a member.
| Play | Bet | Price | Our probability | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safest side | NE ML | -185 ESPN Bet | 68.9% | 5.6% |
| Value bet | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Spread lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Total lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Win + kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
Projected stat lines
| Player | Team | Pos | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | LV | QB | ████████████ |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | RB | ████████████ |
| Brock Bowers | LV | TE | ████████████ |
| Tre Tucker | LV | WR | ████████████ |
| Drake Maye | NE | QB | ████████████ |
| TreVeyon Henderson | NE | RB | ████████████ |
| Mack Hollins | NE | WR | ████████████ |
| Romeo Doubs | NE | WR | ████████████ |
This game is a leg in 3 tickets on the board this week: Balanced build · 5 legs (5 legs, +307); +2500 ticket (7 legs, +2698); Moonshot · +5000 (8 legs, +5024).
See plans — from $19/month monthly or annual; one plan opens every board
Injuries and news the board saw
| Team | Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Jackson Powers-Johnson G | Questionable | Groin |
| LV | Jalen Nailor WR | Questionable | Concussion |
| LV | Trey Zuhn III C | Questionable | Knee |
| NE | Channing Canada CB | Questionable | Hamstring |
| NE | Charles Woods CB | Questionable | Shoulder |
| NE | Christian Barmore DT | Questionable | Shoulder |
| NE | Christian Gonzalez CB | Questionable | Shoulder |
| NE | Eli Raridon TE | Questionable | Ankle |
| NE | Mack Hollins WR | Questionable | Calf |
The board rebuilds every morning and again before kickoff, so injuries and line moves feed the numbers above; this page shows the board as last published (2026-10-07).
About this prediction
What is the model's projected score for Raiders vs Patriots?
New England Patriots 26, Las Vegas Raiders 17 — New England Patriots by 8.5 points and 43 total points. The market line when the board was built was New England Patriots by 3.5 with a total of 45.0.
Who does the model favor to win Raiders vs Patriots?
New England Patriots. The raw model gives them a 77.3% chance; the moneyline price of -185 implies 63.2%. This game carries the week's free pick, NE ML at -192, with a blended probability of 68.7%.
Is this pick guaranteed?
No. A probability is not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites pay short prices for exactly that reason. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook; no pick, parlay or strategy is guaranteed to profit, and past results — including the 2018–2025 test — do not predict future ones. Bet only what you can afford to lose, 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Other games this week
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys Thu Oct 8 · 8:15 PM ET
- Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons Sun Oct 11 · 8:20 PM ET
- Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
- Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
- Cleveland Browns at New York Jets Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
- Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers Sun Oct 11 · 4:05 PM ET
- Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET
- Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
- Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
- Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
- New York Giants at Washington Commanders Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
- Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars Sun Oct 11 · 9:30 AM ET
- San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET
- Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams Mon Oct 12 · 8:15 PM ET