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NFL picks · 2026 Week 5 · Sunday, October 11 · 9:30 AM ET

Eagles vs Jaguars prediction

Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL Week 5. Our model projects the game, the sportsbooks price it, and the two numbers sit side by side below. The priced plays — the safest side, the value bet, the win + kicker combo and the props — are on the members' board; the projection is public, and every pick is graded here after the game.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 17 · Jacksonville Jaguars 19

Winner called by the model: YES — the projection was Jacksonville Jaguars by 9.0.

ResultPickPriceOur probability
WINJAX ML safest side-34576.8%
LOSSOver 41.5 value bet-10555.7%

Graded one unit per bet at the published price, exactly as it appeared on the board before kickoff. The whole week, pick by pick →

The projection · public

Jaguars 28, Eagles 19

Jaguars by 9.0 · 46 total points

Projected margin
JAX −9.0
market: JAX −7.5
Projected total
46
market: 41.5
Raw model win probability
78.5%
Jacksonville Jaguars · before blending with the market
Market implies
75.6%
Jacksonville Jaguars from the moneyline -345

The model projects Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Philadelphia Eagles 28–19; the market agrees on the favorite and prices the spread at 7.5. On the total, the model's 46 sits above the market's 41.5. The raw model gives Jacksonville Jaguars a 78.5% chance to win; the moneyline price implies 75.6%. We never bet the raw model — the published probability on every play blends it with the market, and that blended number is what the board shows members.

A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites lose. 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.

Line movement · public

Where the line has gone

Spread
JAX -6.5 →JAX -7.5
moved 1 toward the favourite
Total
42.5 →41.5
down 1
JAX moneyline
-285 →-345
best price, shorter by 60¢

First posted on our board Tue Oct 6; "now" is our latest refresh. A line that moves toward a side generally means more money has come in on that side.

The board on this game · members

What the box priced

Every play below carries the blended probability, the price it was published at and the edge over that price. For visitors the plays stay sealed; a free account opens the week's free pick, a membership opens all of it.

PlayBetPriceOur probabilityEdge
Safest side ████████sealedsealedsealed
Value bet ████████sealedsealedsealed
Spread lean ████████sealedsealedsealed
Total lean ████████sealedsealedsealed
Win + kicker████████sealedsealedsealed
Kicker████████sealedsealedsealed
Kicker████████sealedsealedsealed

Projected stat lines

PlayerTeamPosProjection
Jalen HurtsPHIQB████████████
Saquon BarkleyPHIRB████████████
DeVonta SmithPHIWR████████████
Dontayvion WicksPHIWR████████████
Trevor LawrenceJAXQB████████████
Bhayshul TutenJAXRB████████████
Parker WashingtonJAXWR████████████
Brenton StrangeJAXTE████████████

This game is a leg in 12 tickets on the board this week: Win + kicker · safest ML + 2 FGs (2 legs, -174); Safe stack · 2 moneylines (2 legs, -148); Safe stack · 3 moneylines (3 legs, +105); Safe stack · 4 moneylines (4 legs, +164); Balanced build · 5 legs (5 legs, +307) and 7 more.

See plans — from $19/month monthly or annual; one plan opens every board

Around the game

Injuries and news the board saw

TeamPlayerStatusInjury
JAXEric Murray SQuestionableConcussion
JAXMontaric Brown CBQuestionableHamstring
PHIDallas Goedert TEDoubtfulKnee - MCL
PHICam Jurgens CQuestionableConcussion
PHIDeVonta Smith WRQuestionableHamstring
PHIFred Johnson OTQuestionableKnee
PHIHollywood Brown WRQuestionableAnkle
PHIJonathan Greenard LBQuestionableAnkle
PHIMarcus Epps SQuestionableGroin
PHIQuinyon Mitchell CBQuestionableKnee
PHISaquon Barkley RBQuestionableHamstring
PHIZack Baun LBQuestionableConcussion

The board rebuilds every morning and again before kickoff, so injuries and line moves feed the numbers above; this page shows the board as last published (2026-10-07).

Questions

About this prediction

What is the model's projected score for Eagles vs Jaguars?

Jacksonville Jaguars 28, Philadelphia Eagles 19 — Jacksonville Jaguars by 9.0 points and 46 total points. The market line when the board was built was Jacksonville Jaguars by 7.5 with a total of 41.5.

Who does the model favor to win Eagles vs Jaguars?

Jacksonville Jaguars. The raw model gives them a 78.5% chance; the moneyline price of -345 implies 75.6%. The priced play on this game — the safest side, blended with the market — is on the members' board.

Is this pick guaranteed?

No. A probability is not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites pay short prices for exactly that reason. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook; no pick, parlay or strategy is guaranteed to profit, and past results — including the 2018–2025 test — do not predict future ones. Bet only what you can afford to lose, 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.

Week 5

Other games this week

The Week 5 board, free pick and results →