NFL picks · 2026 Week 3 · Thursday, September 24
Falcons vs Packers — final
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers, NFL Week 3. The game has been played. This page keeps what we said before kickoff next to what happened — the picks stay up whether they won or lost.
Final
ATL 35 · GB 14
The model's pick: Green Bay Packers by 4.8 — wrong.
| Pick | Price | Our probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB ML safest side | -240 | 67.6% | LOSSclosed -240 · missed the close by 30¢ |
| Over 43 value bet | -110 | 53.1% | WIN |
Graded one unit per bet at the published price, exactly as it appeared on the board before kickoff. The whole week, pick by pick →
What we projected before kickoff
Green Bay Packers 25, Atlanta Falcons 20
Projected margin
GB −4.8
market: GB −5 · actual: ATL by 21
Projected total
45
market: 43.0 · actual: 49
A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise. One game proves nothing about a model either way; the season-long record is what counts, and it is all here.
Where the line went
Spread
GB -7 →GB -5
first posted, then the close
Total
44.5 →43
first posted, then the close
GB moneyline
-320 →-240
first posted, then the close
First price we posted, then the last one before kickoff (our final refresh, not the book's official close).
NFL Week 3
The rest of the week
| Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers | Sun Sep 27 · 4:05 PM ET |
| Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys | Sun Sep 27 · 4:25 PM ET |
| Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns | Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET |
| Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers | Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET |
| Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts | Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET |
| Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins | Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills | Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET |
| Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos | Sun Sep 27 · 8:20 PM ET |
| Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints | Sun Sep 27 · 4:25 PM ET |
| Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sun Sep 27 · 4:05 PM ET |
| New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars | Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET |
| New York Jets at Detroit Lions | Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET |
| Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders | Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET |
| Tennessee Titans at New York Giants | Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET |
| Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears | Mon Sep 28 · 8:15 PM ET |