Raiders vs Saints prediction
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints, NFL Week 3. Our model projects the game, the sportsbooks price it, and the two numbers sit side by side below. The priced plays — the safest side, the value bet, the win + kicker combo and the props — are on the members' board; the projection is public, and every pick is graded here after the game.
Las Vegas Raiders 35 · New Orleans Saints 27
Winner called by the model: NO — the projection was New Orleans Saints by 6.8.
| Result | Pick | Price | Our probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | NO ML safest side | -175 | 66.6% |
| LOSS | NO -3.5 value bet | -102 | 53.1% |
Graded one unit per bet at the published price, exactly as it appeared on the board before kickoff. The whole week, pick by pick →
Saints 25, Raiders 18
Saints by 6.8 · 43 total points
The model projects New Orleans Saints to beat Las Vegas Raiders 25–18; the market agrees on the favorite and prices the spread at 3.5. On the total, the model's 43 sits below the market's 43.5. The raw model gives New Orleans Saints a 72.5% chance to win; the moneyline price implies 62.7%. We never bet the raw model — the published probability on every play blends it with the market, and that blended number is what the board shows members.
A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites lose. 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
NO ML -168 at FanDuel
The line since we posted it: closed -175 · beat the close by 7¢.
Why this is the free pick, in full → · Get the free pick by email every week
Where the line has gone
First posted on our board Tue Sep 22; "now" is our latest refresh. A line that moves toward a side generally means more money has come in on that side.
What the box priced
Every play below carries the blended probability, the price it was published at and the edge over that price. The free pick is open to everyone; the rest stays sealed until you're a member.
| Play | Bet | Price | Our probability | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safest side | NO ML | -175 ESPN Bet | 66.6% | 3.9% |
| Value bet | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Spread lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Total lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Win + kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
Projected stat lines
| Player | Team | Pos | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | LV | QB | ████████████ |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | RB | ████████████ |
| Tre Tucker | LV | WR | ████████████ |
| Brock Bowers | LV | TE | ████████████ |
| Tyler Shough | NO | QB | ████████████ |
| Travis Etienne | NO | RB | ████████████ |
| Chris Olave | NO | WR | ████████████ |
| Juwan Johnson | NO | TE | ████████████ |
This game is a leg in 4 tickets on the board this week: +1000 ticket (5 legs, +1022); +2500 ticket (8 legs, +2532); Moonshot · +5000 (10 legs, +5195); Wildcard parlay (6 legs, +1529).
See plans — from $19/month monthly or annual; one plan opens every board
Injuries and news the board saw
| Team | Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Treydan Stukes S | Out | Concussion |
| LV | Aidan O'Connell QB | Questionable | Not injury related - personal matter |
| LV | Brock Bowers TE | Questionable | Knee |
| LV | Kwity Paye DE | Questionable | Illness |
| NO | Barion Brown WR | Out | Hamstring |
| NO | Christen Miller DT | Out | Toe |
| NO | Martin Emerson CB | Questionable | Shoulder |
| NO | Nathan Shepherd DT | Practice only | Hip |
The board rebuilds every morning and again before kickoff, so injuries and line moves feed the numbers above; this page shows the board as last published (2026-09-27).
About this prediction
What is the model's projected score for Raiders vs Saints?
New Orleans Saints 25, Las Vegas Raiders 18 — New Orleans Saints by 6.8 points and 43 total points. The market line when the board was built was New Orleans Saints by 3.5 with a total of 43.5.
Who does the model favor to win Raiders vs Saints?
New Orleans Saints. The raw model gives them a 72.5% chance; the moneyline price of -175 implies 62.7%. This game carries the week's free pick, NO ML at -168, with a blended probability of 67.2%.
Is this pick guaranteed?
No. A probability is not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites pay short prices for exactly that reason. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook; no pick, parlay or strategy is guaranteed to profit, and past results — including the 2018–2025 test — do not predict future ones. Bet only what you can afford to lose, 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Other games this week
- Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers Sun Sep 27 · 4:05 PM ET
- Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys Sun Sep 27 · 4:25 PM ET
- Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos Sun Sep 27 · 8:20 PM ET
- Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sun Sep 27 · 4:05 PM ET
- New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- New York Jets at Detroit Lions Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- Tennessee Titans at New York Giants Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears Mon Sep 28 · 8:15 PM ET