Chiefs vs Dolphins prediction
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins, NFL Week 3. Our model projects the game, the sportsbooks price it, and the two numbers sit side by side below. The priced plays — the safest side, the value bet, the win + kicker combo and the props — are on the members' board; the projection is public, and every pick is graded here after the game.
Kansas City Chiefs 24 · Miami Dolphins 10
Winner called by the model: YES — the projection was Kansas City Chiefs by 5.6.
| Result | Pick | Price | Our probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | KC ML safest side | -550 | 78.3% |
| LOSS | MIA ML value bet | +500 | 21.7% |
Graded one unit per bet at the published price, exactly as it appeared on the board before kickoff. The whole week, pick by pick →
Chiefs 25, Dolphins 19
Chiefs by 5.6 · 44 total points
The model projects Kansas City Chiefs to beat Miami Dolphins 25–19; the market agrees on the favorite and prices the spread at 9.5. On the total, the model's 44 sits below the market's 45.5. The raw model gives Kansas City Chiefs a 70.4% chance to win; the moneyline price implies 83.5%. We never bet the raw model — the published probability on every play blends it with the market, and that blended number is what the board shows members.
A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites lose. 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Where the line has gone
First posted on our board Tue Sep 22; "now" is our latest refresh. A line that moves toward a side generally means more money has come in on that side.
What the box priced
Every play below carries the blended probability, the price it was published at and the edge over that price. For visitors the plays stay sealed; a free account opens the week's free pick, a membership opens all of it.
| Play | Bet | Price | Our probability | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safest side | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Value bet | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Spread lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Total lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Win + kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
Projected stat lines
| Player | Team | Pos | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | ████████████ |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC | RB | ████████████ |
| Rashee Rice | KC | WR | ████████████ |
| Travis Kelce | KC | TE | ████████████ |
| Malik Willis | MIA | QB | ████████████ |
| De'Von Achane | MIA | RB | ████████████ |
| Malik Washington | MIA | WR | ████████████ |
| Greg Dulcich | MIA | TE | ████████████ |
This game is a leg in 11 tickets on the board this week: Safe stack · 2 moneylines (2 legs, -183); Safe stack · 3 moneylines (3 legs, -105); Safe stack · 4 moneylines (4 legs, +147); Balanced build · 5 legs (5 legs, +233); +2500 ticket (8 legs, +2532) and 6 more.
See plans — from $19/month monthly or annual; one plan opens every board
Injuries and news the board saw
| Team | Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Josh Simmons T | Out | Back |
| KC | Chamarri Conner S | Doubtful | Knee |
| KC | Chris Jones DT | Practice only | Calf |
| KC | L'Jarius Sneed CB | Practice only | Knee |
| MIA | Brady Cook QB | Out | Coach's Decision |
| MIA | Caleb Douglas WR | Out | Ankle |
| MIA | Chukwuebuka Godrick OT | Out | Coach's Decision |
| MIA | DJ Campbell G | Out | Coach's Decision |
| MIA | Marcellas Dial Jr. CB | Out | Coach's Decision |
| MIA | Rob Beal Jr. DE | Out | Hamstring |
| MIA | Robert Beal Jr. DE | Out | Hamstring |
| MIA | Jaylen Wright RB | Doubtful | Stinger |
- Let's predict the next five Super Bowl champs: Seahawks repeat in 2026? Chiefs get another by 2030? ESPN
The board rebuilds every morning and again before kickoff, so injuries and line moves feed the numbers above; this page shows the board as last published (2026-09-27).
About this prediction
What is the model's projected score for Chiefs vs Dolphins?
Kansas City Chiefs 25, Miami Dolphins 19 — Kansas City Chiefs by 5.6 points and 44 total points. The market line when the board was built was Kansas City Chiefs by 9.5 with a total of 45.5.
Who does the model favor to win Chiefs vs Dolphins?
Kansas City Chiefs. The raw model gives them a 70.4% chance; the moneyline price of -550 implies 83.5%. The priced play on this game — the safest side, blended with the market — is on the members' board.
Is this pick guaranteed?
No. A probability is not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites pay short prices for exactly that reason. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook; no pick, parlay or strategy is guaranteed to profit, and past results — including the 2018–2025 test — do not predict future ones. Bet only what you can afford to lose, 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Other games this week
- Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers Sun Sep 27 · 4:05 PM ET
- Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys Sun Sep 27 · 4:25 PM ET
- Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos Sun Sep 27 · 8:20 PM ET
- Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints Sun Sep 27 · 4:25 PM ET
- Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sun Sep 27 · 4:05 PM ET
- New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- New York Jets at Detroit Lions Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- Tennessee Titans at New York Giants Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears Mon Sep 28 · 8:15 PM ET