Seahawks vs Commanders prediction
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders, NFL Week 3. Our model projects the game, the sportsbooks price it, and the two numbers sit side by side below. The priced plays — the safest side, the value bet, the win + kicker combo and the props — are on the members' board; the projection is public, and every pick is graded here after the game.
Seattle Seahawks 31 · Washington Commanders 33
Winner called by the model: NO — the projection was Seattle Seahawks by 8.1.
| Result | Pick | Price | Our probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | SEA ML safest side | -380 | 77.3% |
| WIN | Over 40.5 value bet | -105 | 58.8% |
Graded one unit per bet at the published price, exactly as it appeared on the board before kickoff. The whole week, pick by pick →
Seahawks 28, Commanders 20
Seahawks by 8.1 · 48 total points
The model projects Seattle Seahawks to beat Washington Commanders 28–20; the market agrees on the favorite and prices the spread at 8.5. On the total, the model's 48 sits above the market's 40.5. The raw model gives Seattle Seahawks a 77.4% chance to win; the moneyline price implies 77.3%. We never bet the raw model — the published probability on every play blends it with the market, and that blended number is what the board shows members.
A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites lose. 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Where the line has gone
First posted on our board Tue Sep 22; "now" is our latest refresh. A line that moves toward a side generally means more money has come in on that side.
What the box priced
Every play below carries the blended probability, the price it was published at and the edge over that price. For visitors the plays stay sealed; a free account opens the week's free pick, a membership opens all of it.
| Play | Bet | Price | Our probability | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safest side | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Value bet | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Spread lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Total lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Win + kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
Projected stat lines
| Player | Team | Pos | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | SEA | QB | ████████████ |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA | RB | ████████████ |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | ████████████ |
| Cooper Kupp | SEA | WR | ████████████ |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS | RB | ████████████ |
| Stefon Diggs | WAS | WR | ████████████ |
| Terry McLaurin | WAS | WR | ████████████ |
This game is a leg in 11 tickets on the board this week: Safe stack · 3 moneylines (3 legs, -105); Safe stack · 4 moneylines (4 legs, +147); Spread & total stack · 3 legs (3 legs, +627); Balanced build · 5 legs (5 legs, +233); +2500 ticket (8 legs, +2532) and 6 more.
See plans — from $19/month monthly or annual; one plan opens every board
Injuries and news the board saw
| Team | Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Avery Smith CB | Out | Coach's Decision |
| SEA | Connor O'Toole LB | Out | Coach's Decision |
| SEA | Jalen Milroe QB | Out | Coach's Decision |
| SEA | Julian Love S | Out | Calf |
| SEA | Montorie Foster Jr. WR | Out | Coach's Decision |
| SEA | Ty Okada S | Out | Hamstring |
| SEA | Zach Charbonnet RB | Out | Knee - ACL |
| SEA | Brandon Pili DT | Questionable | Concussion |
| SEA | Cooper Kupp WR | Practice only | Back |
| WAS | Chig Okonkwo TE | Out | Hamstring |
| WAS | Frankie Luvu LB | Out | Groin |
| WAS | Javontae Jean-Baptiste LB | Out | Coach's Decision |
- Let's predict the next five Super Bowl champs: Seahawks repeat in 2026? Chiefs get another by 2030? ESPN
The board rebuilds every morning and again before kickoff, so injuries and line moves feed the numbers above; this page shows the board as last published (2026-09-27).
About this prediction
What is the model's projected score for Seahawks vs Commanders?
Seattle Seahawks 28, Washington Commanders 20 — Seattle Seahawks by 8.1 points and 48 total points. The market line when the board was built was Seattle Seahawks by 8.5 with a total of 40.5.
Who does the model favor to win Seahawks vs Commanders?
Seattle Seahawks. The raw model gives them a 77.4% chance; the moneyline price of -380 implies 77.3%. The priced play on this game — the safest side, blended with the market — is on the members' board.
Is this pick guaranteed?
No. A probability is not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites pay short prices for exactly that reason. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook; no pick, parlay or strategy is guaranteed to profit, and past results — including the 2018–2025 test — do not predict future ones. Bet only what you can afford to lose, 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Other games this week
- Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers Sun Sep 27 · 4:05 PM ET
- Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys Sun Sep 27 · 4:25 PM ET
- Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos Sun Sep 27 · 8:20 PM ET
- Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints Sun Sep 27 · 4:25 PM ET
- Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sun Sep 27 · 4:05 PM ET
- New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- New York Jets at Detroit Lions Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- Tennessee Titans at New York Giants Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears Mon Sep 28 · 8:15 PM ET