Chargers vs Bills prediction
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills, NFL Week 3. Our model projects the game, the sportsbooks price it, and the two numbers sit side by side below. The priced plays — the safest side, the value bet, the win + kicker combo and the props — are on the members' board; the projection is public, and every pick is graded here after the game.
Los Angeles Chargers 16 · Buffalo Bills 24
Winner called by the model: YES — the projection was Buffalo Bills by 12.5.
| Result | Pick | Price | Our probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | BUF ML safest side | -325 | 79.7% |
| WIN | BUF -7 value bet | -105 | 56.6% |
Graded one unit per bet at the published price, exactly as it appeared on the board before kickoff. The whole week, pick by pick →
Bills 30, Chargers 18
Bills by 12.5 · 48 total points
The model projects Buffalo Bills to beat Los Angeles Chargers 30–18; the market agrees on the favorite and prices the spread at 7. On the total, the model's 48 sits below the market's 50.0. The raw model gives Buffalo Bills a 86.1% chance to win; the moneyline price implies 75.4%. We never bet the raw model — the published probability on every play blends it with the market, and that blended number is what the board shows members.
A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites lose. 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Where the line has gone
First posted on our board Tue Sep 22; "now" is our latest refresh. A line that moves toward a side generally means more money has come in on that side.
What the box priced
Every play below carries the blended probability, the price it was published at and the edge over that price. For visitors the plays stay sealed; a free account opens the week's free pick, a membership opens all of it.
| Play | Bet | Price | Our probability | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safest side | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Value bet | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Spread lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Total lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Win + kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
Projected stat lines
| Player | Team | Pos | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | ████████████ |
| Omarion Hampton | LAC | RB | ████████████ |
| Ladd McConkey | LAC | WR | ████████████ |
| Quentin Johnston | LAC | WR | ████████████ |
| Josh Allen | BUF | QB | ████████████ |
| James Cook | BUF | RB | ████████████ |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | TE | ████████████ |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR | ████████████ |
This game is a leg in 11 tickets on the board this week: Win + kicker · safest ML + 2 FGs (2 legs, +115); Safe stack · 2 moneylines (2 legs, -183); Safe stack · 3 moneylines (3 legs, -105); Safe stack · 4 moneylines (4 legs, +147); Spread & total stack · 3 legs (3 legs, +627) and 6 more.
See plans — from $19/month monthly or annual; one plan opens every board
Injuries and news the board saw
| Team | Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Jordan Hancock CB | Out | Hamstring |
| BUF | T.J. Sanders DE | Out | Illness |
| BUF | Ar'maj Reed-Adams G | Questionable | Elbow |
| BUF | DJ Moore WR | Questionable | Shoulder |
| BUF | Ed Oliver DT | Questionable | Hip |
| BUF | Keon Coleman WR | Questionable | Ankle |
| BUF | Terrel Bernard LB | Practice only | Knee |
| LAC | Brenen Thompson WR | Out | Quadricep |
| LAC | Charlie Kolar TE | Out | Forearm |
| LAC | Dalvin Tomlinson DT | Out | Hamstring |
| LAC | Elijah Molden S | Out | Hamstring |
| LAC | Kayode Awosika G | Out | Fibula |
The board rebuilds every morning and again before kickoff, so injuries and line moves feed the numbers above; this page shows the board as last published (2026-09-27).
About this prediction
What is the model's projected score for Chargers vs Bills?
Buffalo Bills 30, Los Angeles Chargers 18 — Buffalo Bills by 12.5 points and 48 total points. The market line when the board was built was Buffalo Bills by 7 with a total of 50.0.
Who does the model favor to win Chargers vs Bills?
Buffalo Bills. The raw model gives them a 86.1% chance; the moneyline price of -325 implies 75.4%. The priced play on this game — the safest side, blended with the market — is on the members' board.
Is this pick guaranteed?
No. A probability is not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites pay short prices for exactly that reason. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook; no pick, parlay or strategy is guaranteed to profit, and past results — including the 2018–2025 test — do not predict future ones. Bet only what you can afford to lose, 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Other games this week
- Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers Sun Sep 27 · 4:05 PM ET
- Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys Sun Sep 27 · 4:25 PM ET
- Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos Sun Sep 27 · 8:20 PM ET
- Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints Sun Sep 27 · 4:25 PM ET
- Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sun Sep 27 · 4:05 PM ET
- New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- New York Jets at Detroit Lions Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- Tennessee Titans at New York Giants Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET
- Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears Mon Sep 28 · 8:15 PM ET