NFL picks · 2026 Week 1 · Sunday, September 13

Dolphins vs Raiders prediction

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL Week 1. Our model projects the game, the sportsbooks price it, and the two numbers sit side by side below. The priced plays — the safest side, the value bet, the win + kicker combo and the props — are on the members' board; the projection is public, and every pick is graded here after the game.

The projection · public

Dolphins 23, Raiders 18

Dolphins by 5.0 · 40 total points

Projected margin
MIA −5.0
market: LV −3
Projected total
40
market: 40.5
Raw model win probability
68.7%
Miami Dolphins · before blending with the market
Market implies
40.4%
Miami Dolphins from the moneyline +145

The model projects Miami Dolphins to beat Las Vegas Raiders 23–18, while the market makes Las Vegas Raiders the favorite by 3. On the total, the model's 40 sits below the market's 40.5. The raw model gives Miami Dolphins a 68.7% chance to win; the moneyline price implies 40.4%. We never bet the raw model — the published probability on every play blends it with the market, and that blended number is what the board shows members.

A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites lose. 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.

The board on this game · members

What the box priced

Every play below carries the blended probability, the price it was published at and the edge over that price. For visitors the plays stay sealed; a free account opens the week's free pick, a membership opens all of it.

PlayBetPriceOur probabilityEdge
Safest side ████████sealedsealedsealed
Value bet ████████sealedsealedsealed
Spread lean ████████sealedsealedsealed
Total lean ████████sealedsealedsealed
Win + kicker████████sealedsealedsealed
Kicker████████sealedsealedsealed
Kicker████████sealedsealedsealed

Projected stat lines

TeamPlayerProjection
QBMalik Willis████████████
RBDe'Von Achane████████████
TEGreg Dulcich████████████
WRMalik Washington████████████
QBKirk Cousins████████████
RBAshton Jeanty████████████
TEBrock Bowers████████████
WRTre Tucker████████████

This game is a leg in 5 tickets on the board this week: Spread & total stack · 3 legs (3 legs, +622); +1000 ticket (5 legs, +1009); +2500 ticket (7 legs, +2522); Moonshot · +5000 (8 legs, +5031); Wildcard parlay (5 legs, +1593).

See plans — from $39/month weekly, monthly or annual; every board

Around the game

Injuries and news the board saw

No injury designations listed for either team on this board's report.

The board rebuilds every morning and again before kickoff, so injuries and line moves feed the numbers above; this page shows the board as last published (2026-09-09).

Questions

About this prediction

What is the model's projected score for Dolphins vs Raiders?

Miami Dolphins 23, Las Vegas Raiders 18 — Miami Dolphins by 5.0 points and 40 total points. The market line when the board was built was Las Vegas Raiders by 3 with a total of 40.5.

Who does the model favor to win Dolphins vs Raiders?

Miami Dolphins. The raw model gives them a 68.7% chance; the moneyline price of +145 implies 40.4%. The priced play on this game — the safest side, blended with the market — is on the members' board.

Is this pick guaranteed?

No. A probability is not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites pay short prices for exactly that reason. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook; no pick, parlay or strategy is guaranteed to profit, and past results — including the 2018–2025 test — do not predict future ones. Bet only what you can afford to lose, 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.

Week 1

Other games this week

The Week 1 board, free pick and results →