Broncos vs Chiefs prediction
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL Week 1. Our model projects the game, the sportsbooks price it, and the two numbers sit side by side below. The priced plays — the safest side, the value bet, the win + kicker combo and the props — are on the members' board; the projection is public, and every pick is graded here after the game.
Denver Broncos 10 · Kansas City Chiefs 31
Winner called by the model: NO — the projection was Denver Broncos by 1.6.
| Result | Pick | Price | Our probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | DEN +2 safest side | -105 | 54.3% |
| LOSS | DEN ML value bet | +115 | 50.0% |
Graded one unit per bet at the published price, exactly as it appeared on the board before kickoff. The whole week, pick by pick →
Broncos 21, Chiefs 19
Broncos by 1.6 · 40 total points
The model projects Denver Broncos to beat Kansas City Chiefs 21–19, while the market makes Kansas City Chiefs the favorite by 2. On the total, the model's 40 sits below the market's 43.0. The raw model gives Denver Broncos a 56.9% chance to win; the moneyline price implies 45.4%. We never bet the raw model — the published probability on every play blends it with the market, and that blended number is what the board shows members.
A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites lose. 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
What the box priced
Every play below carries the blended probability, the price it was published at and the edge over that price. For visitors the plays stay sealed; a free account opens the week's free pick, a membership opens all of it.
| Play | Bet | Price | Our probability | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safest side | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Value bet | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Spread lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Total lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Win + kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
Projected stat lines
| Player | Team | Pos | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | DEN | QB | ████████████ |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN | RB | ████████████ |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | ████████████ |
| Jaylen Waddle | DEN | WR | ████████████ |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | ████████████ |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC | RB | ████████████ |
| Rashee Rice | KC | WR | ████████████ |
| Travis Kelce | KC | TE | ████████████ |
This game is a leg in 3 tickets on the board this week: Win + kicker · safest ML + 2 FGs (2 legs, +149); Safe stack · 2 moneylines (2 legs, +172); Safe · 2 games (4 legs, +2654).
See plans — from $19/month monthly or annual; one plan opens every board
Injuries and news the board saw
| Team | Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Jonathon Cooper LB | Out | Personal |
| DEN | Nick Gargiulo G | Out | Knee - ACL |
| KC | Chamarri Conner S | Out | Knee |
| KC | Josh Simmons T | Out | Back |
| KC | Omarr Norman-Lott DT | Out | Knee - ACL |
| KC | Chris Jones DT | Practice only | Calf |
| KC | L'Jarius Sneed CB | Practice only | Knee |
The board rebuilds every morning and again before kickoff, so injuries and line moves feed the numbers above; this page shows the board as last published (2026-09-14).
About this prediction
What is the model's projected score for Broncos vs Chiefs?
Denver Broncos 21, Kansas City Chiefs 19 — Denver Broncos by 1.6 points and 40 total points. The market line when the board was built was Kansas City Chiefs by 2 with a total of 43.0.
Who does the model favor to win Broncos vs Chiefs?
Denver Broncos. The raw model gives them a 56.9% chance; the moneyline price of +115 implies 45.4%. The priced play on this game — the safest side, blended with the market — is on the members' board.
Is this pick guaranteed?
No. A probability is not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites pay short prices for exactly that reason. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook; no pick, parlay or strategy is guaranteed to profit, and past results — including the 2018–2025 test — do not predict future ones. Bet only what you can afford to lose, 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Other games this week
- Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills Thu Sep 17