NFL picks · 2026 Week 1 · Sunday, September 13

Cardinals vs Chargers prediction

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL Week 1. Our model projects the game, the sportsbooks price it, and the two numbers sit side by side below. The priced plays — the safest side, the value bet, the win + kicker combo and the props — are on the members' board; the projection is public, and every pick is graded here after the game.

The projection · public

Chargers 26, Cardinals 20

Chargers by 6.7 · 46 total points

Projected margin
LAC −6.7
market: LAC −9.5
Projected total
46
market: 47.5
Raw model win probability
72.1%
Los Angeles Chargers · before blending with the market
Market implies
81.2%
Los Angeles Chargers from the moneyline -500

The model projects Los Angeles Chargers to beat Arizona Cardinals 26–20; the market agrees on the favorite and prices the spread at 9.5. On the total, the model's 46 sits below the market's 47.5. The raw model gives Los Angeles Chargers a 72.1% chance to win; the moneyline price implies 81.2%. We never bet the raw model — the published probability on every play blends it with the market, and that blended number is what the board shows members.

A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites lose. 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.

The board on this game · members

What the box priced

Every play below carries the blended probability, the price it was published at and the edge over that price. For visitors the plays stay sealed; a free account opens the week's free pick, a membership opens all of it.

PlayBetPriceOur probabilityEdge
Safest side ████████sealedsealedsealed
Value bet ████████sealedsealedsealed
Spread lean ████████sealedsealedsealed
Total lean ████████sealedsealedsealed
Win + kicker████████sealedsealedsealed
Kicker████████sealedsealedsealed
Kicker████████sealedsealedsealed

Projected stat lines

TeamPlayerProjection
QBJacoby Brissett████████████
RBTyler Allgeier████████████
WRMichael Wilson████████████
TETrey McBride████████████
QBJustin Herbert████████████
RBOmarion Hampton████████████
WRQuentin Johnston████████████
WRLadd McConkey████████████

This game is a leg in 8 tickets on the board this week: Safe stack · 2 moneylines (2 legs, -200); Safe stack · 3 moneylines (3 legs, -102); Safe stack · 4 moneylines (4 legs, +191); Balanced build · 5 legs (5 legs, +366); Safe · 2 games (4 legs, +242) and 3 more.

See plans — from $39/month weekly, monthly or annual; every board

Questions

About this prediction

What is the model's projected score for Cardinals vs Chargers?

Los Angeles Chargers 26, Arizona Cardinals 20 — Los Angeles Chargers by 6.7 points and 46 total points. The market line when the board was built was Los Angeles Chargers by 9.5 with a total of 47.5.

Who does the model favor to win Cardinals vs Chargers?

Los Angeles Chargers. The raw model gives them a 72.1% chance; the moneyline price of -500 implies 81.2%. The priced play on this game — the safest side, blended with the market — is on the members' board.

Is this pick guaranteed?

No. A probability is not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites pay short prices for exactly that reason. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook; no pick, parlay or strategy is guaranteed to profit, and past results — including the 2018–2025 test — do not predict future ones. Bet only what you can afford to lose, 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.

Week 1

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