NFL picks · 2026 Week 1 · Sunday, September 13
Bills vs Texans — final
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans, NFL Week 1. The game has been played. This page keeps what we said before kickoff next to what happened — the picks stay up whether they won or lost.
Final
BUF 36 · HOU 31
The model's pick: Houston Texans by 1.5 — wrong.
| Pick | Price | Our probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU +1.5 safest side | -110 | 54.0% | LOSS |
| HOU ML value bet | +105 | 50.6% | LOSS |
Graded one unit per bet at the published price, exactly as it appeared on the board before kickoff. The whole week, pick by pick →
NFL Week 1
The rest of the week
| Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs | Mon Sep 14 |
| New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks | NE 10 · SEA 13 |
| San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams | SF 27 · LA 7 |
| Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers | ARI 26 · LAC 14 |
| Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers | ATL 13 · PIT 20 |
| Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts | BAL 41 · IND 23 |
| Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers | CHI 59 · CAR 37 |
| Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars | CLE 10 · JAX 34 |
| Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants | DAL 20 · NYG 28 |
| Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings | GB 22 · MIN 39 |
| Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders | MIA 13 · LV 27 |
| New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions | NO 30 · DET 31 |
| New York Jets at Tennessee Titans | NYJ 23 · TEN 10 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals | TB 27 · CIN 33 |
| Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles | WAS 22 · PHI 24 |