Texans vs Chargers prediction
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL Week 9. Our model projects the game, the sportsbooks price it, and the two numbers sit side by side below. The priced plays — the safest side, the value bet, the win + kicker combo and the props — are on the members' board; the projection is public, and every pick is graded here after the game.
Texans 24, Chargers 19
Texans by 4.5 · 43 total points
The model projects Houston Texans to beat Los Angeles Chargers 24–19; the market agrees on the favorite and prices the spread at 4.5. On the total, the model's 43 sits above the market's 40.5. The raw model gives Houston Texans a 66.9% chance to win; the moneyline price implies 65.8%. We never bet the raw model — the published probability on every play blends it with the market, and that blended number is what the board shows members.
A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites lose. 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Where the line has gone
First posted on our board Tue Nov 3; "now" is our latest refresh. A line that moves toward a side generally means more money has come in on that side. Every book's price on this game →
What the box priced
Every play below carries the blended probability, the price it was published at and the edge over that price. For visitors the plays stay sealed; a free account opens the week's free pick, a membership opens all of it.
| Play | Bet | Price | Our probability | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safest side | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Value bet | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Spread lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Total lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Win + kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
Projected stat lines
| Player | Team | Pos | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | QB | ████████████ |
| Woody Marks | HOU | RB | ████████████ |
| Nico Collins | HOU | WR | ████████████ |
| Dalton Schultz | HOU | TE | ████████████ |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | ████████████ |
| Omarion Hampton | LAC | RB | ████████████ |
| Ladd McConkey | LAC | WR | ████████████ |
| Quentin Johnston | LAC | WR | ████████████ |
This game is a leg in 5 tickets on the board this week: +1000 ticket (6 legs, +1029); Safe · 2 games (4 legs, +284); Moderate · 3 games (6 legs, +641); Moonshot · 5 games (10 legs, +3699); Wildcard parlay (7 legs, +1522).
See plans — from $19/month monthly or annual; one plan opens every board
Injuries and news the board saw
| Team | Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Blake Fisher OT | Questionable | Thumb |
| HOU | David Montgomery RB | Questionable | Groin |
| HOU | Jalen Pitre S | Questionable | Shoulder - AC Joint |
| HOU | Reed Blankenship S | Questionable | Concussion |
| LAC | Brenen Thompson WR | Questionable | Quadriceps |
| LAC | Deane Leonard CB | Questionable | Concussion |
| LAC | Donte Jackson CB | Questionable | Hamstring |
| LAC | Kayode Awosika G | Questionable | Lower Leg |
| LAC | Rodney Shelley CB | Questionable | Hamstring |
The board rebuilds every morning and again before kickoff, so injuries and line moves feed the numbers above; this page shows the board as last published (2026-11-03).
About this prediction
What is the model's projected score for Texans vs Chargers?
Houston Texans 24, Los Angeles Chargers 19 — Houston Texans by 4.5 points and 43 total points. The market line when the board was built was Houston Texans by 4.5 with a total of 40.5.
Who does the model favor to win Texans vs Chargers?
Houston Texans. The raw model gives them a 66.9% chance; the moneyline price of -198 implies 65.8%. The priced play on this game — the safest side, blended with the market — is on the members' board.
Is this pick guaranteed?
No. A probability is not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites pay short prices for exactly that reason. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook; no pick, parlay or strategy is guaranteed to profit, and past results — including the 2018–2025 test — do not predict future ones. Bet only what you can afford to lose, 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Other games this week
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens Thu Nov 5 · 8:15 PM ET
- Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Sun Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
- Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons Sun Nov 8 · 9:30 AM ET
- Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
- Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
- Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
- Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
- Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots Sun Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
- Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
- Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers Sun Nov 8 · 4:05 PM ET
- New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
- New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears Sun Nov 8 · 8:20 PM ET
- Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings Mon Nov 9 · 8:15 PM ET