Bills vs Vikings prediction
Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings, NFL Week 9. Our model projects the game, the sportsbooks price it, and the two numbers sit side by side below. The priced plays — the safest side, the value bet, the win + kicker combo and the props — are on the members' board; the projection is public, and every pick is graded here after the game.
Bills 24, Vikings 22
Bills by 1.5 · 46 total points
The model projects Buffalo Bills to beat Minnesota Vikings 24–22; the market agrees on the favorite and prices the spread at 3. On the total, the model's 46 sits below the market's 46.5. The raw model gives Buffalo Bills a 56.5% chance to win; the moneyline price implies 61.6%. We never bet the raw model — the published probability on every play blends it with the market, and that blended number is what the board shows members.
A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites lose. 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Where the line has gone
First posted on our board Tue Nov 3; "now" is our latest refresh. A line that moves toward a side generally means more money has come in on that side. Every book's price on this game →
What the box priced
Every play below carries the blended probability, the price it was published at and the edge over that price. For visitors the plays stay sealed; a free account opens the week's free pick, a membership opens all of it.
| Play | Bet | Price | Our probability | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safest side | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Value bet | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Spread lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Total lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Win + kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
Projected stat lines
| Player | Team | Pos | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF | QB | ████████████ |
| James Cook | BUF | RB | ████████████ |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | TE | ████████████ |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR | ████████████ |
| Kyler Murray | MIN | QB | ████████████ |
| Aaron Jones | MIN | RB | ████████████ |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | ████████████ |
| Jordan Addison | MIN | WR | ████████████ |
This game is a leg in 1 ticket on the board this week: Moonshot · 5 games (10 legs, +3699).
See plans — from $19/month monthly or annual; one plan opens every board
Injuries and news the board saw
| Team | Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | DJ Moore WR | Questionable | Knee |
| BUF | Dee Alford CB | Questionable | Ankle |
| BUF | Greg Gaines DT | Questionable | Calf |
| BUF | Joshua Palmer WR | Questionable | Hamstring |
| BUF | Spencer Brown OT | Questionable | Back |
| MIN | Christian Darrisaw OT | Questionable | Shoulder |
| MIN | Kyler Murray QB | Questionable | Hamstring |
| MIN | Theo Jackson S | Questionable | Quadriceps |
The board rebuilds every morning and again before kickoff, so injuries and line moves feed the numbers above; this page shows the board as last published (2026-11-03).
About this prediction
What is the model's projected score for Bills vs Vikings?
Buffalo Bills 24, Minnesota Vikings 22 — Buffalo Bills by 1.5 points and 46 total points. The market line when the board was built was Buffalo Bills by 3 with a total of 46.5.
Who does the model favor to win Bills vs Vikings?
Buffalo Bills. The raw model gives them a 56.5% chance; the moneyline price of -170 implies 61.6%. The priced play on this game — the safest side, blended with the market — is on the members' board.
Is this pick guaranteed?
No. A probability is not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites pay short prices for exactly that reason. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook; no pick, parlay or strategy is guaranteed to profit, and past results — including the 2018–2025 test — do not predict future ones. Bet only what you can afford to lose, 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Other games this week
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens Thu Nov 5 · 8:15 PM ET
- Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Sun Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
- Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons Sun Nov 8 · 9:30 AM ET
- Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
- Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
- Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
- Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
- Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots Sun Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
- Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers Sun Nov 8 · 4:05 PM ET
- Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
- Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers Sun Nov 8 · 4:05 PM ET
- New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
- New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears Sun Nov 8 · 8:20 PM ET