Packers vs Patriots prediction
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots, NFL Week 9. Our model projects the game, the sportsbooks price it, and the two numbers sit side by side below. The priced plays — the safest side, the value bet, the win + kicker combo and the props — are on the members' board; the projection is public, and every pick is graded here after the game.
Patriots 27, Packers 21
Patriots by 6.2 · 48 total points
The model projects New England Patriots to beat Green Bay Packers 27–21; the market agrees on the favorite and prices the spread at 3. On the total, the model's 48 sits above the market's 46.5. The raw model gives New England Patriots a 70.7% chance to win; the moneyline price implies 58.5%. We never bet the raw model — the published probability on every play blends it with the market, and that blended number is what the board shows members.
A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites lose. 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Where the line has gone
First posted on our board Tue Nov 3; "now" is our latest refresh. A line that moves toward a side generally means more money has come in on that side. Every book's price on this game →
What the box priced
Every play below carries the blended probability, the price it was published at and the edge over that price. For visitors the plays stay sealed; a free account opens the week's free pick, a membership opens all of it.
| Play | Bet | Price | Our probability | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safest side | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Value bet | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Spread lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Total lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Win + kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
Projected stat lines
| Player | Team | Pos | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | GB | QB | ████████████ |
| Josh Jacobs | GB | RB | ████████████ |
| Christian Watson | GB | WR | ████████████ |
| Matthew Golden | GB | WR | ████████████ |
| Drake Maye | NE | QB | ████████████ |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | RB | ████████████ |
| A.J. Brown | NE | WR | ████████████ |
| Hunter Henry | NE | TE | ████████████ |
This game is a leg in 2 tickets on the board this week: +1000 ticket (6 legs, +1029); Wildcard parlay (7 legs, +1522).
See plans — from $19/month monthly or annual; one plan opens every board
Injuries and news the board saw
| Team | Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Micah Parsons DE | Out | Knee - ACL |
| GB | Christian Watson WR | Questionable | Ribs |
| GB | Sean Rhyan G | Questionable | Ankle |
| GB | Travis Glover OT | Questionable | Knee |
| GB | Zaire Franklin LB | Questionable | Shin |
| NE | A.J. Brown WR | Questionable | Ankle |
| NE | Gabe Jacas LB | Questionable | Knee |
| NE | Hunter Henry TE | Questionable | Foot |
| NE | TreVeyon Henderson RB | Questionable | Illness |
- Packers sticking with RB Jacobs despite latest abuse allegations ESPN
- Drake digs the long ball: How Maye's deep passes are fueling the Patriots' recent surge ESPN
The board rebuilds every morning and again before kickoff, so injuries and line moves feed the numbers above; this page shows the board as last published (2026-11-03).
About this prediction
What is the model's projected score for Packers vs Patriots?
New England Patriots 27, Green Bay Packers 21 — New England Patriots by 6.2 points and 48 total points. The market line when the board was built was New England Patriots by 3 with a total of 46.5.
Who does the model favor to win Packers vs Patriots?
New England Patriots. The raw model gives them a 70.7% chance; the moneyline price of -150 implies 58.5%. The priced play on this game — the safest side, blended with the market — is on the members' board.
Is this pick guaranteed?
No. A probability is not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites pay short prices for exactly that reason. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook; no pick, parlay or strategy is guaranteed to profit, and past results — including the 2018–2025 test — do not predict future ones. Bet only what you can afford to lose, 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Other games this week
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens Thu Nov 5 · 8:15 PM ET
- Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Sun Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
- Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons Sun Nov 8 · 9:30 AM ET
- Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
- Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
- Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
- Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
- Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers Sun Nov 8 · 4:05 PM ET
- Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
- Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers Sun Nov 8 · 4:05 PM ET
- New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
- New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs Sun Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears Sun Nov 8 · 8:20 PM ET
- Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings Mon Nov 9 · 8:15 PM ET