NFL picks · 2026 Week 4 · Sunday, October 4
Patriots vs Bills — final
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills, NFL Week 4. The game has been played. This page keeps what we said before kickoff next to what happened — the picks stay up whether they won or lost.
Final
NE 29 · BUF 26
The model's pick: Buffalo Bills by 5.0 — wrong.
| Pick | Price | Our probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF ML safest side | -298 | 71.0% | LOSSclosed -298 · missed the close by 7¢ |
| NE ML value bet | +275 | 29.0% | WINclosed +275 · same number |
Graded one unit per bet at the published price, exactly as it appeared on the board before kickoff. The whole week, pick by pick →
What we projected before kickoff
Buffalo Bills 26, New England Patriots 21
Projected margin
BUF −5.0
market: BUF −7 · actual: NE by 3
Projected total
46
market: 49.5 · actual: 55
A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise. One game proves nothing about a model either way; the season-long record is what counts, and it is all here.
Where the line went
Spread
BUF -6.5 →BUF -7
first posted, then the close
Total
48.5 →49.5
first posted, then the close
BUF moneyline
-305 →-298
first posted, then the close
First price we posted, then the last one before kickoff (our final refresh, not the book's official close).
NFL Week 4
The rest of the week
| Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints | Mon Oct 5 · 8:15 PM ET |
| Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns | PIT 24 · CLE 27 |
| Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants | ARI 24 · NYG 36 |
| Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans | DAL 34 · HOU 30 |
| Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers | DEN 14 · SF 24 |
| Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers | DET 26 · CAR 32 |
| Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | GB 17 · TB 14 |
| Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders | IND 30 · WAS 13 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals | JAX 22 · CIN 17 |
| Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders | KC 30 · LV 27 |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks | LAC 23 · SEA 30 |
| Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles | LA 24 · PHI 20 |
| Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings | MIA 10 · MIN 15 |
| New York Jets at Chicago Bears | NYJ 12 · CHI 23 |
| Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens | TEN 18 · BAL 24 |