NFL picks · 2026 Week 4 · Sunday, October 4
Chiefs vs Raiders — final
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL Week 4. The game has been played. This page keeps what we said before kickoff next to what happened — the picks stay up whether they won or lost.
Final
KC 30 · LV 27
The model's pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 4.3 — correct.
| Pick | Price | Our probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC ML safest side | -225 | 66.8% | WINclosed -225 · beat the close by 12¢ |
| Under 47.5 value bet | -105 | 55.9% | LOSSclosed 47.5 -105 · same number |
Graded one unit per bet at the published price, exactly as it appeared on the board before kickoff. The whole week, pick by pick →
What we projected before kickoff
Kansas City Chiefs 23, Las Vegas Raiders 19
Projected margin
KC −4.3
market: KC −4.5 · actual: KC by 3
Projected total
43
market: 47.5 · actual: 57
A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise. One game proves nothing about a model either way; the season-long record is what counts, and it is all here.
Where the line went
Spread
KC -4.5
never moved
Total
47.5
never moved
KC moneyline
-213 →-225
first posted, then the close
First price we posted, then the last one before kickoff (our final refresh, not the book's official close).
NFL Week 4
The rest of the week
| Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints | Mon Oct 5 · 8:15 PM ET |
| Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns | PIT 24 · CLE 27 |
| Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants | ARI 24 · NYG 36 |
| Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans | DAL 34 · HOU 30 |
| Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers | DEN 14 · SF 24 |
| Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers | DET 26 · CAR 32 |
| Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | GB 17 · TB 14 |
| Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders | IND 30 · WAS 13 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals | JAX 22 · CIN 17 |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks | LAC 23 · SEA 30 |
| Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles | LA 24 · PHI 20 |
| Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings | MIA 10 · MIN 15 |
| New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills | NE 29 · BUF 26 |
| New York Jets at Chicago Bears | NYJ 12 · CHI 23 |
| Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens | TEN 18 · BAL 24 |