NFL Week 4 picks
Week 4 is in the books. Here is the free pick as it was published, and how every pick on the members' board landed — wins and losses alike, graded at the published price.
ATL ML +107 at BetRivers
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints · Monday, October 5 · 8:15 PM ET · final ATL 45 – NO 24
The model projects New Orleans Saints by 0.1 points (22–22, ATL at NO), with a projected total of 44 against the market's 47.5. The market has New Orleans Saints favored by 1.5. On the moneyline the model's raw number gives Atlanta Falcons a 50% chance to win; the price of +107 implies 47.5%. We never bet the raw model — the market is part of the number. Blended, our probability is 48.7%, an edge of 1.2% over the price. That is what makes it the free pick: of the plays still to come on this week's board priced between -250 and +250 whose number beats the price even after the sportsbook's cut, this is the most likely to win.
How it landed: WIN · ATL 45 – NO 24
The line since we posted it: closed +107 · same number.
Published 2026-10-05 at the price shown; the pick is kept as published and graded at that price, even if the line moves.
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| Also free this week | Price | Our probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI ML NYJ @ CHI | -175 | 68.8% | WIN NYJ 12 – CHI 23closed -178 · beat the close by 3¢ |
| SF ML DEN @ SF | -152 | 60.8% | WIN DEN 14 – SF 24closed -152 · same number |
Last week: safest bets went 8–8 (-3.94 units), value bets 8–8, winners called 7 of 16. Week 3 pick by pick →
How Week 4 landed
| Result | Pick | Price | Our probability | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | Under 47.5 safest | -105 | 53.9% | ATL 45 – NO 24 |
| LOSS | PIT ML safest | -145 | 58.5% | PIT 24 – CLE 27 |
| WIN | NYG +2.5 safest | -105 | 55.3% | ARI 24 – NYG 36 |
| LOSS | HOU ML safest | -148 | 61.4% | DAL 34 – HOU 30 |
| WIN | SF ML safest | -152 | 60.8% | DEN 14 – SF 24 |
| LOSS | DET ML safest | -197 | 64.2% | DET 26 – CAR 32 |
| LOSS | Over 38.5 safest | -113 | 57.9% | GB 17 – TB 14 |
| WIN | IND ML safest | -215 | 67.3% | IND 30 – WAS 13 |
| WIN | JAX +2.5 safest | +100 | 56.1% | JAX 22 – CIN 17 |
| WIN | KC ML safest | -225 | 66.8% | KC 30 – LV 27 |
| WIN | SEA ML safest | -350 | 80.0% | LAC 23 – SEA 30 |
| WIN | LA ML safest | -190 | 65.1% | LA 24 – PHI 20 |
| WIN | MIN ML safest | -510 | 81.4% | MIA 10 – MIN 15 |
| LOSS | BUF ML safest | -298 | 71.0% | NE 29 – BUF 26 |
| WIN | CHI ML safest | -178 | 69.9% | NYJ 12 – CHI 23 |
| WIN | BAL ML safest | -700 | 85.9% | TEN 18 – BAL 24 |
| LOSS | Under 47.5 value | -105 | 53.9% | ATL 45 – NO 24 |
| WIN | Over 38 value | -108 | 55.9% | PIT 24 – CLE 27 |
| WIN | Over 44.5 value | +100 | 54.8% | ARI 24 – NYG 36 |
| LOSS | HOU ML value | -148 | 61.4% | DAL 34 – HOU 30 |
| LOSS | Over 48 value | -110 | 54.4% | DEN 14 – SF 24 |
| LOSS | Over 38.5 value | -113 | 57.9% | GB 17 – TB 14 |
| WIN | Under 46.5 value | -105 | 51.7% | IND 30 – WAS 13 |
| WIN | JAX ML value | +123 | 51.5% | JAX 22 – CIN 17 |
| LOSS | Under 47.5 value | -105 | 55.9% | KC 30 – LV 27 |
| PUSH | SEA -7 value | -109 | 57.6% | LAC 23 – SEA 30 |
| WIN | Over 42.5 value | -114 | 59.3% | LA 24 – PHI 20 |
| LOSS | Over 38.5 value | -108 | 55.9% | MIA 10 – MIN 15 |
| WIN | NE ML value | +275 | 29.0% | NE 29 – BUF 26 |
| WIN | CHI -3.5 value | -108 | 57.6% | NYJ 12 – CHI 23 |
| LOSS | Over 42.5 value | +100 | 57.0% | TEN 18 – BAL 24 |
One unit per bet at the published price. Parlays, win + kicker combos and the parlay of the week are graded the same way on the board's Record tab.
About these picks
What is the free pick?
The most likely winner on the NFL board this week that is still priced in your favour: a moneyline between -250 and +250 where our number — the model blended with the market price — beats the sportsbook's price even after the book's cut (if no moneyline qualifies, the most likely spread or total that does). It is chosen when the week's board is first published, kept as published, and graded in public after the game like every other pick. Through Week 2 of 2026 the free pick was the single most likely side on the board instead; those are shown as they were published.
Where do the probabilities come from?
A proprietary model projects every game's margin and total from team strength, recent form, injuries and matchups, then blends its raw probability with the price the sportsbooks are offering. The blended number is what we publish; the raw model on its own would call winners a touch less often than the closing line, which is why the market is part of the number.
Does a high probability mean the bet is safe?
No. 48.7% is a probability, not a promise: the other side happens. Favorites pay short prices for exactly that reason. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook; no pick, parlay or strategy is guaranteed to profit, and past results — including the 2018–2025 test — do not predict future ones.