NFL Week 1 picks
Week 1 is in the books. Here is the free pick as it was published, and how every pick on the members' board landed — wins and losses alike, graded at the published price.
JAX ML -425
final CLE 10 – JAX 34
Published under the site's first free-pick rule — the single most likely side on the board — at -425, our probability 83.7%.
How it landed: WIN · CLE 10 – JAX 34
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How Week 1 landed
| Result | Pick | Price | Our probability | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | DEN +2 safest | -105 | 54.3% | DEN 10 – KC 31 |
| WIN | SEA ML safest | -166 | 66.4% | NE 10 – SEA 13 |
| LOSS | LA ML safest | -218 | 67.3% | SF 27 – LA 7 |
| LOSS | LAC ML safest | -450 | 77.0% | ARI 26 – LAC 14 |
| WIN | PIT ML safest | -260 | 69.6% | ATL 13 – PIT 20 |
| WIN | BAL ML safest | -167 | 65.3% | BAL 41 – IND 23 |
| LOSS | HOU +1.5 safest | -110 | 54.0% | BUF 36 – HOU 31 |
| WIN | CHI ML safest | -160 | 63.9% | CHI 59 – CAR 37 |
| WIN | JAX ML safest | -425 | 83.7% | CLE 10 – JAX 34 |
| LOSS | DAL ML safest | -157 | 56.7% | DAL 20 – NYG 28 |
| LOSS | Under 46 safest | -105 | 57.9% | GB 22 – MIN 39 |
| LOSS | MIA +3 safest | -105 | 59.0% | MIA 13 – LV 27 |
| WIN | DET ML safest | -290 | 73.1% | NO 30 – DET 31 |
| LOSS | Over 38.5 safest | -109 | 58.2% | NYJ 23 – TEN 10 |
| WIN | CIN ML safest | -190 | 62.7% | TB 27 – CIN 33 |
| WIN | PHI ML safest | -250 | 69.3% | WAS 22 – PHI 24 |
| LOSS | DEN ML value | +115 | 50.0% | DEN 10 – KC 31 |
| WIN | SEA ML value | -166 | 66.4% | NE 10 – SEA 13 |
| LOSS | Over 47.5 value | -115 | 55.9% | SF 27 – LA 7 |
| WIN | ARI ML value | +390 | 23.0% | ARI 26 – LAC 14 |
| LOSS | ATL ML value | +260 | 30.4% | ATL 13 – PIT 20 |
| WIN | BAL ML value | -167 | 65.3% | BAL 41 – IND 23 |
| LOSS | HOU ML value | +105 | 50.6% | BUF 36 – HOU 31 |
| WIN | CHI -3 value | -102 | 52.6% | CHI 59 – CAR 37 |
| WIN | JAX -8.5 value | -105 | 57.6% | CLE 10 – JAX 34 |
| WIN | NYG ML value | +140 | 43.3% | DAL 20 – NYG 28 |
| LOSS | Under 46 value | -105 | 57.9% | GB 22 – MIN 39 |
| LOSS | MIA ML value | +145 | 51.7% | MIA 13 – LV 27 |
| LOSS | Under 49.5 value | -104 | 52.2% | NO 30 – DET 31 |
| LOSS | Over 38.5 value | -109 | 58.2% | NYJ 23 – TEN 10 |
| LOSS | TB ML value | +176 | 37.3% | TB 27 – CIN 33 |
One unit per bet at the published price. Parlays, win + kicker combos and the parlay of the week are graded the same way on the board's Record tab.
About these picks
What is the free pick?
The most likely winner on the NFL board this week that is still priced in your favour: a moneyline between -250 and +250 where our number — the model blended with the market price — beats the sportsbook's price even after the book's cut (if no moneyline qualifies, the most likely spread or total that does). It is chosen when the week's board is first published, kept as published, and graded in public after the game like every other pick. Through Week 2 of 2026 the free pick was the single most likely side on the board instead; those are shown as they were published.
Where do the probabilities come from?
A proprietary model projects every game's margin and total from team strength, recent form, injuries and matchups, then blends its raw probability with the price the sportsbooks are offering. The blended number is what we publish; the raw model on its own would call winners a touch less often than the closing line, which is why the market is part of the number.
Does a high probability mean the bet is safe?
No. 83.7% is a probability, not a promise: the other side happens. Favorites pay short prices for exactly that reason. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook; no pick, parlay or strategy is guaranteed to profit, and past results — including the 2018–2025 test — do not predict future ones.