NFL Week 1 picks
Our model prices every Week 1 game against the sportsbooks. One pick is free to everyone: the single highest-probability side on the board, shown here with the number behind it. The rest of the board is for members, and every pick — free or not — is graded in public after the games.
JAX ML -440
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars · Sunday, September 13
The model projects Jacksonville Jaguars by 14.3 points (15–30, CLE at JAX), with a projected total of 45 against the market's 40.5. The market has Jacksonville Jaguars favored by 8.5. On the moneyline the model's raw number gives Jacksonville Jaguars a 89% chance to win; the price of -440 implies 78.2%. We never bet the raw model — the market is part of the number. Blended, our probability is 82.5%, an edge of 4.3% over the price. That gap is why it's the free pick this week, not a promise about the game.
Favorites pay short, and they still lose. 82.5% means roughly one week in 6 this side loses. Bet amounts you can afford to lose; 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
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The safest side in every game
Every game gets the same treatment as the free pick: the model's probability next to the market's, the safest side, the best value, and the parlays built from them. Members see all of it; here it stays sealed.
| Game | Kickoff | Safest side | Our probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE @ JAX | Sunday, September 13 | JAX ML -440 | 82.5% |
| ARI @ LAC | Sunday, September 13 | ████████ | sealed |
| NO @ DET | Sunday, September 13 | ████████ | sealed |
| NE @ SEA | Wednesday, September 9 | ████████ | sealed |
| WAS @ PHI | Sunday, September 13 | ████████ | sealed |
| SF @ LA | Thursday, September 10 | ████████ | sealed |
| BAL @ IND | Sunday, September 13 | ████████ | sealed |
| TB @ CIN | Sunday, September 13 | ████████ | sealed |
| CHI @ CAR | Sunday, September 13 | ████████ | sealed |
| MIA @ LV | Sunday, September 13 | ████████ | sealed |
| GB @ MIN | Sunday, September 13 | ████████ | sealed |
| ATL @ PIT | Sunday, September 13 | ████████ | sealed |
| DAL @ NYG | Sunday, September 13 | ████████ | sealed |
| NYJ @ TEN | Sunday, September 13 | ████████ | sealed |
| DEN @ KC | Monday, September 14 | ████████ | sealed |
| BUF @ HOU | Sunday, September 13 | ████████ | sealed |
Parlays on the board this week
| Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win + kicker · safest ML + 2 FGs | 2 | -167 | 63.3% |
| Safe stack · 2 moneylines | 2 | -212 | 63.4% |
| Safe stack · 3 moneylines | 3 | -102 | 45.3% |
| Safe stack · 4 moneylines | 4 | +208 | 30.4% |
| Spread & total stack · 3 legs | 3 | +576 | 20.2% |
| Balanced build · 5 legs | 5 | +359 | 20.2% |
| Win + kicker · Safe · 2 games | 4 | +224 | members |
| Win + kicker · Moderate · 3 games | 6 | +584 | members |
| Win + kicker · Moonshot · 5 games | 10 | +3798 | members |
| Parlay of the week | 5 | +476 | members |
See plans — from $9.99 weekly, monthly or annual; every board
About these picks
What is the free pick?
The single highest-probability side on the NFL board this week, by our model's number blended with the market price. It is the same pick members see at the top of their board. It is free to anyone with a free account, and it is graded in public after the game like every other pick.
Where do the probabilities come from?
A proprietary model projects every game's margin and total from team strength, recent form, injuries and matchups, then blends its raw probability with the price the sportsbooks are offering. The blended number is what we publish; the raw model on its own would call winners a touch less often than the closing line, which is why the market is part of the number.
Does a high probability mean the bet is safe?
No. 82.5% is a probability, not a promise: the other side happens. Favorites pay short prices for exactly that reason. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook; no pick, parlay or strategy is guaranteed to profit, and past results — including the 2018–2025 test — do not predict future ones.