NFL Week 5 picks
Week 5 is in the books. Here is the free pick as it was published, and how every pick on the members' board landed — wins and losses alike, graded at the published price.
NE ML -192 at DraftKings
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots · Sunday, October 11 · 1:00 PM ET · final LV 17 – NE 45
The model projects New England Patriots by 8.5 points (17–26, LV at NE), with a projected total of 43 against the market's 45.0. The market has New England Patriots favored by 3.5. On the moneyline the model's raw number gives New England Patriots a 75% chance to win; the price of -192 implies 64.5%. We never bet the raw model — the market is part of the number. Blended, our probability is 68.7%, an edge of 4.2% over the price. That is what makes it the free pick: of the plays still to come on this week's board priced between -250 and +250 whose number beats the price even after the sportsbook's cut, this is the most likely to win.
How it landed: WIN · LV 17 – NE 45
The line since we posted it: closed -185 · missed the close by 7¢.
Published 2026-10-06 at the price shown; the pick is kept as published and graded at that price, even if the line moves.
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Last week: safest bets went 10–6 (-0.77 units), value bets 7–7, winners called 12 of 16. Week 4 pick by pick →
How Week 5 landed
| Result | Pick | Price | Our probability | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | JAX ML safest | -345 | 76.8% | PHI 17 – JAX 19 |
| WIN | HOU ML safest | -335 | 75.3% | HOU 26 – TEN 3 |
| LOSS | DAL ML safest | -450 | 74.0% | TB 24 – DAL 16 |
| WIN | CIN ML safest | -345 | 72.7% | CIN 31 – MIA 24 |
| WIN | NE ML safest | -185 | 68.9% | LV 17 – NE 45 |
| WIN | DET ML safest | -230 | 68.4% | DET 45 – ARI 21 |
| LOSS | SEA ML safest | -154 | 61.1% | SF 32 – SEA 29 |
| WIN | NYG +3.5 safest | -105 | 61.0% | NYG 27 – WAS 27 |
| WIN | DEN ML safest | -180 | 58.4% | DEN 23 – LAC 17 |
| LOSS | LA ML safest | -152 | 57.8% | BUF 37 – LA 34 |
| WIN | BAL +3.5 safest | -115 | 57.7% | BAL 30 – ATL 23 |
| WIN | MIN ML safest | -125 | 57.5% | MIN 23 – NO 13 |
| LOSS | CLE +2.5 safest | -112 | 57.4% | CLE 12 – NYJ 17 |
| LOSS | CHI ML safest | -152 | 56.2% | CHI 7 – GB 31 |
| WIN | PIT ML safest | -134 | 55.1% | IND 22 – PIT 34 |
| PUSH | NYG ML value | +164 | 51.3% | NYG 27 – WAS 27 |
| WIN | TB ML value | +380 | 26.0% | TB 24 – DAL 16 |
| WIN | BAL ML value | +150 | 46.8% | BAL 30 – ATL 23 |
| LOSS | CLE ML value | +113 | 52.7% | CLE 12 – NYJ 17 |
| WIN | Over 42.5 value | -108 | 56.8% | CIN 31 – MIA 24 |
| LOSS | Over 37.5 value | -108 | 56.6% | HOU 26 – TEN 3 |
| LOSS | Over 41.5 value | -105 | 55.7% | PHI 17 – JAX 19 |
| WIN | NE -3.5 value | -110 | 56.2% | LV 17 – NE 45 |
| LOSS | LAC ML value | +155 | 41.6% | DEN 23 – LAC 17 |
| WIN | MIN ML value | -125 | 57.5% | MIN 23 – NO 13 |
| WIN | GB ML value | +135 | 43.8% | CHI 7 – GB 31 |
| WIN | BUF ML value | +140 | 42.2% | BUF 37 – LA 34 |
| WIN | Over 46.5 value | +100 | 50.5% | SF 32 – SEA 29 |
| WIN | Over 44.5 value | -102 | 51.0% | IND 22 – PIT 34 |
| LOSS | Under 54.5 value | -105 | 51.5% | DET 45 – ARI 21 |
One unit per bet at the published price. Parlays, win + kicker combos and the parlay of the week are graded the same way on the board's Record tab.
About these picks
What is the free pick?
The most likely winner on the NFL board this week that is still priced in your favour: a moneyline between -250 and +250 where our number — the model blended with the market price — beats the sportsbook's price even after the book's cut (if no moneyline qualifies, the most likely spread or total that does). It is chosen when the week's board is first published, kept as published, and graded in public after the game like every other pick. Through Week 2 of 2026 the free pick was the single most likely side on the board instead; those are shown as they were published.
Where do the probabilities come from?
A proprietary model projects every game's margin and total from team strength, recent form, injuries and matchups, then blends its raw probability with the price the sportsbooks are offering. The blended number is what we publish; the raw model on its own would call winners a touch less often than the closing line, which is why the market is part of the number.
Does a high probability mean the bet is safe?
No. 68.7% is a probability, not a promise: the other side happens. Favorites pay short prices for exactly that reason. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook; no pick, parlay or strategy is guaranteed to profit, and past results — including the 2018–2025 test — do not predict future ones.