Patriots vs Dolphins prediction
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins, NFL Week 8. Our model projects the game, the sportsbooks price it, and the two numbers sit side by side below. The priced plays — the safest side, the value bet, the win + kicker combo and the props — are on the members' board; the projection is public, and every pick is graded here after the game.
Patriots 26, Dolphins 20
Patriots by 5.5 · 46 total points
The model projects New England Patriots to beat Miami Dolphins 26–20; the market agrees on the favorite and prices the spread at 7.5. On the total, the model's 46 sits above the market's 44.5. The raw model gives New England Patriots a 70.3% chance to win; the moneyline price implies 77.0%. We never bet the raw model — the published probability on every play blends it with the market, and that blended number is what the board shows members.
A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites lose. 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Where the line has gone
First posted on our board Tue Oct 27; "now" is our latest refresh. A line that moves toward a side generally means more money has come in on that side. Every book's price on this game →
What the box priced
Every play below carries the blended probability, the price it was published at and the edge over that price. For visitors the plays stay sealed; a free account opens the week's free pick, a membership opens all of it.
| Play | Bet | Price | Our probability | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safest side | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Value bet | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Spread lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Total lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Win + kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
Projected stat lines
| Player | Team | Pos | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | NE | QB | ████████████ |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | RB | ████████████ |
| A.J. Brown | NE | WR | ████████████ |
| Hunter Henry | NE | TE | ████████████ |
| Malik Willis | MIA | QB | ████████████ |
| Ollie Gordon II | MIA | RB | ████████████ |
| Caleb Douglas | MIA | WR | ████████████ |
| Greg Dulcich | MIA | TE | ████████████ |
This game is a leg in 4 tickets on the board this week: Safe stack · 4 moneylines (4 legs, +153); Balanced build · 5 legs (5 legs, +242); Moonshot · +5000 (10 legs, +5312); Parlay of the week (5 legs, +384).
See plans — from $19/month monthly or annual; one plan opens every board
Injuries and news the board saw
| Team | Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Jaylen Wright RB | Questionable | Quadriceps |
| MIA | Reese Taylor CB | Questionable | Quadriceps |
| MIA | Robert Beal Jr. DE | Questionable | Hamstring |
| MIA | Willie Gay Jr. LB | Questionable | Illness |
| NE | Ben Brown C | Out | Knee |
| NE | Carlton Davis III CB | Out | Neck |
| NE | Channing Canada CB | Out | Hamstring |
| NE | Karon Prunty CB | Out | Hamstring |
The board rebuilds every morning and again before kickoff, so injuries and line moves feed the numbers above; this page shows the board as last published (2026-10-27).
About this prediction
What is the model's projected score for Patriots vs Dolphins?
New England Patriots 26, Miami Dolphins 20 — New England Patriots by 5.5 points and 46 total points. The market line when the board was built was New England Patriots by 7.5 with a total of 44.5.
Who does the model favor to win Patriots vs Dolphins?
New England Patriots. The raw model gives them a 70.3% chance; the moneyline price of -370 implies 77.0%. The priced play on this game — the safest side, blended with the market — is on the members' board.
Is this pick guaranteed?
No. A probability is not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites pay short prices for exactly that reason. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook; no pick, parlay or strategy is guaranteed to profit, and past results — including the 2018–2025 test — do not predict future ones. Bet only what you can afford to lose, 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Other games this week
- Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers Thu Oct 29 · 8:15 PM ET
- Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET
- Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET
- Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET
- Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET
- Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET
- Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos Sun Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ET
- Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams Sun Nov 1 · 4:05 PM ET
- Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET
- Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET
- Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders Sun Nov 1 · 8:20 PM ET
- Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET
- Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks Mon Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ET