Bears vs Seahawks prediction
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks, NFL Week 8. Our model projects the game, the sportsbooks price it, and the two numbers sit side by side below. The priced plays — the safest side, the value bet, the win + kicker combo and the props — are on the members' board; the projection is public, and every pick is graded here after the game.
Seahawks 26, Bears 20
Seahawks by 6.2 · 47 total points
The model projects Seattle Seahawks to beat Chicago Bears 26–20; the market agrees on the favorite and prices the spread at 3. On the total, the model's 47 sits above the market's 46.5. The raw model gives Seattle Seahawks a 70.8% chance to win; the moneyline price implies 61.2%. We never bet the raw model — the published probability on every play blends it with the market, and that blended number is what the board shows members.
A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites lose. 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Where the line has gone
First posted on our board Tue Oct 27; "now" is our latest refresh. A line that moves toward a side generally means more money has come in on that side. Every book's price on this game →
What the box priced
Every play below carries the blended probability, the price it was published at and the edge over that price. For visitors the plays stay sealed; a free account opens the week's free pick, a membership opens all of it.
| Play | Bet | Price | Our probability | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safest side | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Value bet | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Spread lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Total lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Win + kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
Projected stat lines
| Player | Team | Pos | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | CHI | QB | ████████████ |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI | RB | ████████████ |
| Luther Burden III | CHI | WR | ████████████ |
| Rome Odunze | CHI | WR | ████████████ |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | QB | ████████████ |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA | RB | ████████████ |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | ████████████ |
| Cooper Kupp | SEA | WR | ████████████ |
This game is a leg in 5 tickets on the board this week: Spread & total stack · 3 legs (3 legs, +597); +1000 ticket (6 legs, +1015); +2500 ticket (8 legs, +2560); Moonshot · +5000 (10 legs, +5312); Wildcard parlay (7 legs, +1505).
See plans — from $19/month monthly or annual; one plan opens every board
Injuries and news the board saw
| Team | Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Anthony Johnson Jr. S | Out | Undisclosed |
| CHI | Jack Sanborn LB | Out | Concussion |
| CHI | Kyle Monangai RB | Out | Toe |
| CHI | T.J. Edwards LB | Out | Hamstring |
| CHI | Malik Muhammad II CB | Questionable | Toe |
| SEA | Charles Cross OT | Doubtful | Ankle |
| SEA | Chazz Surratt LB | Questionable | Calf |
| SEA | Connor O'Toole LB | Questionable | Hamstring |
| SEA | Drake Thomas LB | Questionable | Ankle |
| SEA | Drew Lock QB | Questionable | Elbow |
| SEA | Rashid Shaheed WR | Questionable | Knee |
| SEA | Velus Jones Jr. RB | Questionable | Hamstring |
The board rebuilds every morning and again before kickoff, so injuries and line moves feed the numbers above; this page shows the board as last published (2026-10-27).
About this prediction
What is the model's projected score for Bears vs Seahawks?
Seattle Seahawks 26, Chicago Bears 20 — Seattle Seahawks by 6.2 points and 47 total points. The market line when the board was built was Seattle Seahawks by 3 with a total of 46.5.
Who does the model favor to win Bears vs Seahawks?
Seattle Seahawks. The raw model gives them a 70.8% chance; the moneyline price of -170 implies 61.2%. The priced play on this game — the safest side, blended with the market — is on the members' board.
Is this pick guaranteed?
No. A probability is not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites pay short prices for exactly that reason. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook; no pick, parlay or strategy is guaranteed to profit, and past results — including the 2018–2025 test — do not predict future ones. Bet only what you can afford to lose, 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Other games this week
- Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers Thu Oct 29 · 8:15 PM ET
- Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET
- Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET
- Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET
- Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET
- Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET
- Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos Sun Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ET
- Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams Sun Nov 1 · 4:05 PM ET
- Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET
- Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET
- New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins Sun Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ET
- Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders Sun Nov 1 · 8:20 PM ET
- Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET