Rams vs Raiders prediction
Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL Week 7. Our model projects the game, the sportsbooks price it, and the two numbers sit side by side below. The priced plays — the safest side, the value bet, the win + kicker combo and the props — are on the members' board; the projection is public, and every pick is graded here after the game.
Rams 29, Raiders 22
Rams by 7.7 · 51 total points
The model projects Los Angeles Rams to beat Las Vegas Raiders 29–22; the market agrees on the favorite and prices the spread at 4.5. On the total, the model's 51 sits above the market's 48.5. The raw model gives Los Angeles Rams a 76.6% chance to win; the moneyline price implies 65.9%. We never bet the raw model — the published probability on every play blends it with the market, and that blended number is what the board shows members.
A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites lose. 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
LA ML -210 at BetMGM
In Florida? Hard Rock Bet: -210 — the best price on the board.
The line since we posted it: now -210 · same number.
Why this is the free pick, in full → · Get the free pick by email every week
Where the line has gone
First posted on our board Wed Oct 21; "now" is our latest refresh. A line that moves toward a side generally means more money has come in on that side. Every book's price on this game →
What the box priced
Every play below carries the blended probability, the price it was published at and the edge over that price. The free pick is open to everyone; the rest stays sealed until you're a member.
| Play | Bet | Price | Our probability | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safest side | LA ML | -210 BetMGM | 70.2% | 4.3% |
| Value bet | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Spread lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Total lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Win + kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
Projected stat lines
| Player | Team | Pos | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | LA | QB | ████████████ |
| Kyren Williams | LA | RB | ████████████ |
| Puka Nacua | LA | WR | ████████████ |
| Konata Mumpfield | LA | WR | ████████████ |
| Kirk Cousins | LV | QB | ████████████ |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | RB | ████████████ |
| Brock Bowers | LV | TE | ████████████ |
| Tre Tucker | LV | WR | ████████████ |
This game is a leg in 8 tickets on the board this week: Safe stack · 3 moneylines (3 legs, +142); Safe stack · 4 moneylines (4 legs, +253); Balanced build · 5 legs (5 legs, +458); +1000 ticket (5 legs, +1028); +2500 ticket (7 legs, +2596) and 3 more.
See plans — from $19/month monthly or annual; one plan opens every board
Injuries and news the board saw
| Team | Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Nate Landman LB | Questionable | Concussion |
| LA | Trent McDuffie CB | Questionable | Groin |
| LV | Tonka Hemingway DT | Questionable | Concussion |
- DB Franklin becomes 2nd Bills player suspended for spitting in Raiders game ESPN
- From superteam to 2-4 disappointment? Barnwell on what has gone wrong for the Rams ESPN
- Betting buzz: Rams' loss to Cardinals sends shockwaves through survivor pools ESPN
The board rebuilds every morning and again before kickoff, so injuries and line moves feed the numbers above; this page shows the board as last published (2026-10-21).
About this prediction
What is the model's projected score for Rams vs Raiders?
Los Angeles Rams 29, Las Vegas Raiders 22 — Los Angeles Rams by 7.7 points and 51 total points. The market line when the board was built was Los Angeles Rams by 4.5 with a total of 48.5.
Who does the model favor to win Rams vs Raiders?
Los Angeles Rams. The raw model gives them a 76.6% chance; the moneyline price of -210 implies 65.9%. This game carries the week's free pick, LA ML at -210, with a blended probability of 70.2%.
Is this pick guaranteed?
No. A probability is not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites pay short prices for exactly that reason. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook; no pick, parlay or strategy is guaranteed to profit, and past results — including the 2018–2025 test — do not predict future ones. Bet only what you can afford to lose, 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Other games this week
- New England Patriots at Chicago Bears Thu Oct 22 · 8:15 PM ET
- Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET
- Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET
- Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals Sun Oct 25 · 4:05 PM ET
- Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions Sun Oct 25 · 4:25 PM ET
- Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET
- Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks Sun Oct 25 · 8:20 PM ET
- Miami Dolphins at New York Jets Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET
- New York Giants at Houston Texans Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET
- Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints Sun Oct 25 · 9:30 AM ET
- San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET
- Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles Mon Oct 26 · 8:15 PM ET