Packers vs Lions prediction
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions, NFL Week 7. Our model projects the game, the sportsbooks price it, and the two numbers sit side by side below. The priced plays — the safest side, the value bet, the win + kicker combo and the props — are on the members' board; the projection is public, and every pick is graded here after the game.
Lions 28, Packers 25
Lions by 3.5 · 53 total points
The model projects Detroit Lions to beat Green Bay Packers 28–25; the market agrees on the favorite and prices the spread at 3. On the total, the model's 53 sits below the market's 53.5. The raw model gives Detroit Lions a 61.8% chance to win; the moneyline price implies 61.2%. We never bet the raw model — the published probability on every play blends it with the market, and that blended number is what the board shows members.
A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites lose. 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Where the line has gone
First posted on our board Wed Oct 21; "now" is our latest refresh. A line that moves toward a side generally means more money has come in on that side. Every book's price on this game →
What the box priced
Every play below carries the blended probability, the price it was published at and the edge over that price. For visitors the plays stay sealed; a free account opens the week's free pick, a membership opens all of it.
| Play | Bet | Price | Our probability | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safest side | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Value bet | not on the board this week | |||
| Spread lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Total lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Win + kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
Projected stat lines
| Player | Team | Pos | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | GB | QB | ████████████ |
| MarShawn Lloyd | GB | RB | ████████████ |
| Christian Watson | GB | WR | ████████████ |
| Matthew Golden | GB | WR | ████████████ |
| Jared Goff | DET | QB | ████████████ |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | ████████████ |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | ████████████ |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | TE | ████████████ |
This game is a leg in 2 tickets on the board this week: +2500 ticket (7 legs, +2596); Moonshot · +5000 (9 legs, +5256).
See plans — from $19/month monthly or annual; one plan opens every board
Injuries and news the board saw
| Team | Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Brian Branch S | Out | Achilles |
| DET | Kerby Joseph S | Out | Knee |
| DET | Rock Ya-Sin CB | Questionable | Hamstring |
| GB | Jordon Riley DT | Out | Achilles |
| GB | Micah Parsons DE | Out | Knee - ACL |
| GB | Aaron Banks G | Questionable | Toe |
| GB | Anthony Campbell DT | Questionable | Ankle |
| GB | Benjamin St-Juste CB | Questionable | Hamstring |
| GB | Bo Melton WR | Questionable | Back |
| GB | Brandon Cisse CB | Questionable | Shoulder |
| GB | Christian Watson WR | Questionable | Ankle |
| GB | Jordan Love QB | Questionable | Back |
- 'An elite player in this league': Lions hope Branch's return will transform defense ESPN
- TE LaPorta: Will 'go get paid somewhere else' if no Lions deal ESPN
The board rebuilds every morning and again before kickoff, so injuries and line moves feed the numbers above; this page shows the board as last published (2026-10-21).
About this prediction
What is the model's projected score for Packers vs Lions?
Detroit Lions 28, Green Bay Packers 25 — Detroit Lions by 3.5 points and 53 total points. The market line when the board was built was Detroit Lions by 3 with a total of 53.5.
Who does the model favor to win Packers vs Lions?
Detroit Lions. The raw model gives them a 61.8% chance; the moneyline price of -162 implies 61.2%. The priced play on this game — the safest side, blended with the market — is on the members' board.
Is this pick guaranteed?
No. A probability is not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites pay short prices for exactly that reason. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook; no pick, parlay or strategy is guaranteed to profit, and past results — including the 2018–2025 test — do not predict future ones. Bet only what you can afford to lose, 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Other games this week
- New England Patriots at Chicago Bears Thu Oct 22 · 8:15 PM ET
- Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET
- Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET
- Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals Sun Oct 25 · 4:05 PM ET
- Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET
- Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks Sun Oct 25 · 8:20 PM ET
- Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders Sun Oct 25 · 4:25 PM ET
- Miami Dolphins at New York Jets Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET
- New York Giants at Houston Texans Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET
- Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints Sun Oct 25 · 9:30 AM ET
- San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET
- Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles Mon Oct 26 · 8:15 PM ET