Bears vs Falcons prediction
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons, NFL Week 6. Our model projects the game, the sportsbooks price it, and the two numbers sit side by side below. The priced plays — the safest side, the value bet, the win + kicker combo and the props — are on the members' board; the projection is public, and every pick is graded here after the game.
Falcons 25, Bears 23
Falcons by 2.5 · 48 total points
The model projects Atlanta Falcons to beat Chicago Bears 25–23, while the market makes Chicago Bears the favorite by 1.5. On the total, the model's 48 sits below the market's 51.5. The raw model gives Atlanta Falcons a 58.3% chance to win; the moneyline price implies 48.8%. We never bet the raw model — the published probability on every play blends it with the market, and that blended number is what the board shows members.
A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites lose. 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Where the line has gone
First posted on our board Sat Oct 17; "now" is our latest refresh. A line that moves toward a side generally means more money has come in on that side.
What the box priced
Every play below carries the blended probability, the price it was published at and the edge over that price. For visitors the plays stay sealed; a free account opens the week's free pick, a membership opens all of it.
| Play | Bet | Price | Our probability | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safest side | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Value bet | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Spread lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Total lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Win + kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
Projected stat lines
| Player | Team | Pos | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | CHI | QB | ████████████ |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI | RB | ████████████ |
| Luther Burden III | CHI | WR | ████████████ |
| Rome Odunze | CHI | WR | ████████████ |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | QB | ████████████ |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | ████████████ |
| Drake London | ATL | WR | ████████████ |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL | TE | ████████████ |
This game is a leg in 3 tickets on the board this week: +2500 ticket (6 legs, +2552); Moonshot · +5000 (8 legs, +5113); Wildcard parlay (5 legs, +1544).
See plans — from $19/month monthly or annual; one plan opens every board
Injuries and news the board saw
| Team | Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | C.J. Henderson CB | Out | Groin |
| ATL | Za'Darius Smith DE | Questionable | Neck |
| ATL | Divine Deablo LB | Practice only | Hamstring |
| ATL | Drake London WR | Practice only | Hip |
| ATL | Jake Matthews T | Practice only | Groin |
| CHI | Anthony Johnson Jr. S | Out | Undisclosed |
| CHI | Dayo Odeyingbo DE | Out | Quadricep |
| CHI | Keyshaun Elliott LB | Out | Quadricep |
| CHI | Kyle Monangai RB | Out | Thumb |
| CHI | T.J. Edwards LB | Out | Hamstring |
| CHI | Caleb Williams QB | Questionable | Hamstring |
| CHI | Kyler Gordon CB | Questionable | Calf |
- Sources: Bears plan to start QB Williams in Week 6 vs. Falcons ESPN
- Bears CB Gordon, oft-injured since $40M deal, activated from PUP list ESPN
The board rebuilds every morning and again before kickoff, so injuries and line moves feed the numbers above; this page shows the board as last published (2026-10-18).
About this prediction
What is the model's projected score for Bears vs Falcons?
Atlanta Falcons 25, Chicago Bears 23 — Atlanta Falcons by 2.5 points and 48 total points. The market line when the board was built was Chicago Bears by 1.5 with a total of 51.5.
Who does the model favor to win Bears vs Falcons?
Atlanta Falcons. The raw model gives them a 58.3% chance; the moneyline price of +100 implies 48.8%. The priced play on this game — the safest side, blended with the market — is on the members' board.
Is this pick guaranteed?
No. A probability is not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites pay short prices for exactly that reason. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook; no pick, parlay or strategy is guaranteed to profit, and past results — including the 2018–2025 test — do not predict future ones. Bet only what you can afford to lose, 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Other games this week
- Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams Sun Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET
- Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
- Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET
- Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
- Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers Sun Oct 18 · 8:20 PM ET
- Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET
- New Orleans Saints at New York Giants Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
- New York Jets at New England Patriots Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
- Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
- Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers Mon Oct 19 · 8:15 PM ET