Jets vs Patriots prediction
New York Jets at New England Patriots, NFL Week 6. Our model projects the game, the sportsbooks price it, and the two numbers sit side by side below. The priced plays — the safest side, the value bet, the win + kicker combo and the props — are on the members' board; the projection is public, and every pick is graded here after the game.
Patriots 28, Jets 15
Patriots by 12.4 · 43 total points
The model projects New England Patriots to beat New York Jets 28–15; the market agrees on the favorite and prices the spread at 7. On the total, the model's 43 sits above the market's 42.5. The raw model gives New England Patriots a 86.0% chance to win; the moneyline price implies 74.8%. We never bet the raw model — the published probability on every play blends it with the market, and that blended number is what the board shows members.
A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites lose. 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Where the line has gone
First posted on our board Sat Oct 17; "now" is our latest refresh. A line that moves toward a side generally means more money has come in on that side.
What the box priced
Every play below carries the blended probability, the price it was published at and the edge over that price. For visitors the plays stay sealed; a free account opens the week's free pick, a membership opens all of it.
| Play | Bet | Price | Our probability | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safest side | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Value bet | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Spread lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Total lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Win + kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
Projected stat lines
| Player | Team | Pos | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | NYJ | QB | ████████████ |
| Braelon Allen | NYJ | RB | ████████████ |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | WR | ████████████ |
| Kenyon Sadiq | NYJ | TE | ████████████ |
| Drake Maye | NE | QB | ████████████ |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | RB | ████████████ |
| A.J. Brown | NE | WR | ████████████ |
| Romeo Doubs | NE | WR | ████████████ |
This game is a leg in 9 tickets on the board this week: Safe stack · 2 moneylines (2 legs, -210); Safe stack · 3 moneylines (3 legs, -121); Safe stack · 4 moneylines (4 legs, +130); Spread & total stack · 3 legs (3 legs, +622); Balanced build · 5 legs (5 legs, +211) and 4 more.
See plans — from $19/month monthly or annual; one plan opens every board
Injuries and news the board saw
| Team | Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Carlton Davis III CB | Out | Neck |
| NE | Karon Prunty CB | Out | Hamstring |
| NE | A.J. Brown WR | Questionable | Ankle |
| NE | Channing Canada CB | Questionable | Hamstring |
| NE | Christian Elliss LB | Questionable | Chest |
| NE | Craig Woodson S | Questionable | Shoulder |
| NE | Marcus Bryant T | Questionable | Ankle |
| NE | TreVeyon Henderson RB | Questionable | Ankle |
| NE | Will Campbell T | Questionable | Knee |
| NE | Morgan Moses T | Practice only | Foot |
| NYJ | Adonai Mitchell WR | Out | Finger |
| NYJ | Breece Hall RB | Out | Quadricep |
- Patriots activate WR Brown for Sunday's game vs. Jets ESPN
- Patriots' rookie report: How is the class of 2026 doing, and who has made an impact already? ESPN
The board rebuilds every morning and again before kickoff, so injuries and line moves feed the numbers above; this page shows the board as last published (2026-10-18).
About this prediction
What is the model's projected score for Jets vs Patriots?
New England Patriots 28, New York Jets 15 — New England Patriots by 12.4 points and 43 total points. The market line when the board was built was New England Patriots by 7 with a total of 42.5.
Who does the model favor to win Jets vs Patriots?
New England Patriots. The raw model gives them a 86.0% chance; the moneyline price of -320 implies 74.8%. The priced play on this game — the safest side, blended with the market — is on the members' board.
Is this pick guaranteed?
No. A probability is not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites pay short prices for exactly that reason. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook; no pick, parlay or strategy is guaranteed to profit, and past results — including the 2018–2025 test — do not predict future ones. Bet only what you can afford to lose, 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Other games this week
- Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams Sun Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET
- Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
- Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET
- Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
- Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
- Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers Sun Oct 18 · 8:20 PM ET
- Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET
- New Orleans Saints at New York Giants Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
- Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
- Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers Mon Oct 19 · 8:15 PM ET