NFL Week 2 picks
Week 2 is in the books. Here is the free pick as it was published, and how every pick on the members' board landed — wins and losses alike, graded at the published price.
Over 48 -108 at BetMGM
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams · Monday, September 21 · 8:15 PM ET · final NYG 6 – LA 28
The model projects Los Angeles Rams by 6.2 points (23–29, NYG at LA), with a projected total of 52 against the market's 47.5. The market has Los Angeles Rams favored by 6.5. The model's raw number on Over 48 is 60%; the price of -108 implies 50.0%. We never bet the raw model — the market is part of the number. Blended, our probability is 54.1%, an edge of 4.1% over the price. That is what makes it the free pick: of the plays still to come on this week's board priced between -250 and +250 whose number beats the price even after the sportsbook's cut, this is the most likely to win (moneylines get first call; none qualified, so this is the best of the spreads and totals).
How it landed: LOSS · NYG 6 – LA 28
The line since we posted it: closed 47.5 -105 · missed the close by 0.5 pts.
Published 2026-09-20 at the price shown; the pick is kept as published and graded at that price, even if the line moves.
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| Also free this week | Price | Our probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF ML | -910 | 83.3% | WIN MIA 13 – SF 35 |
Last week: safest bets went 8–8 (-4.28 units), value bets 6–9, winners called 9 of 16. Week 1 pick by pick →
How Week 2 landed
| Result | Pick | Price | Our probability | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | LA ML safest | -290 | 71.7% | NYG 6 – LA 28 |
| WIN | BUF ML safest | -245 | 67.7% | DET 31 – BUF 41 |
| WIN | CAR ML safest | -145 | 53.4% | CAR 34 – ATL 3 |
| LOSS | HOU ML safest | -148 | 58.7% | CIN 20 – HOU 6 |
| LOSS | TB ML safest | -400 | 78.0% | CLE 23 – TB 19 |
| WIN | GB ML safest | -175 | 66.4% | GB 20 – NYJ 17 |
| WIN | KC ML safest | -265 | 67.9% | IND 30 – KC 33 |
| LOSS | JAX +2.5 safest | +105 | 53.9% | JAX 13 – DEN 20 |
| LOSS | LAC ML safest | -300 | 74.0% | LV 26 – LAC 14 |
| WIN | SF ML safest | -910 | 83.3% | MIA 13 – SF 35 |
| LOSS | CHI ML safest | -210 | 65.9% | MIN 9 – CHI 3 |
| LOSS | BAL ML safest | -375 | 77.6% | NO 24 – BAL 17 |
| WIN | PHI ML safest | -325 | 75.4% | PHI 24 – TEN 20 |
| WIN | NE ML safest | -230 | 69.4% | PIT 3 – NE 20 |
| WIN | SEA ML safest | -200 | 66.4% | SEA 31 – ARI 7 |
| WIN | DAL ML safest | -200 | 59.9% | WAS 20 – DAL 37 |
| LOSS | Over 47.5 value | -105 | 54.8% | NYG 6 – LA 28 |
| LOSS | DET ML value | +210 | 32.3% | DET 31 – BUF 41 |
| LOSS | ATL ML value | +130 | 46.6% | CAR 34 – ATL 3 |
| LOSS | Over 45.5 value | -108 | 55.9% | CIN 20 – HOU 6 |
| WIN | Over 41.5 value | -102 | 53.2% | CLE 23 – TB 19 |
| LOSS | Over 44.5 value | +100 | 55.0% | GB 20 – NYJ 17 |
| LOSS | IND ML value | +240 | 32.1% | IND 30 – KC 33 |
| LOSS | JAX ML value | +130 | 48.5% | JAX 13 – DEN 20 |
| WIN | Under 43.5 value | -107 | 53.7% | LV 26 – LAC 14 |
| LOSS | MIA ML value | +700 | 16.8% | MIA 13 – SF 35 |
| WIN | Under 47.5 value | -112 | 54.7% | MIN 9 – CHI 3 |
| WIN | NO ML value | +360 | 22.4% | NO 24 – BAL 17 |
| WIN | Over 39.5 value | -109 | 57.9% | PHI 24 – TEN 20 |
| LOSS | Over 41.5 value | -105 | 55.1% | PIT 3 – NE 20 |
| LOSS | Over 41 value | -108 | 57.2% | SEA 31 – ARI 7 |
| LOSS | WAS ML value | +180 | 40.1% | WAS 20 – DAL 37 |
One unit per bet at the published price. Parlays, win + kicker combos and the parlay of the week are graded the same way on the board's Record tab.
About these picks
What is the free pick?
The most likely winner on the NFL board this week that is still priced in your favour: a moneyline between -250 and +250 where our number — the model blended with the market price — beats the sportsbook's price even after the book's cut (if no moneyline qualifies, the most likely spread or total that does). It is chosen when the week's board is first published, kept as published, and graded in public after the game like every other pick. Through Week 2 of 2026 the free pick was the single most likely side on the board instead; those are shown as they were published.
Where do the probabilities come from?
A proprietary model projects every game's margin and total from team strength, recent form, injuries and matchups, then blends its raw probability with the price the sportsbooks are offering. The blended number is what we publish; the raw model on its own would call winners a touch less often than the closing line, which is why the market is part of the number.
Does a high probability mean the bet is safe?
No. 54.1% is a probability, not a promise: the other side happens. Favorites pay short prices for exactly that reason. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook; no pick, parlay or strategy is guaranteed to profit, and past results — including the 2018–2025 test — do not predict future ones.