Lions vs Bills prediction
Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills, NFL Week 1. Our model projects the game, the sportsbooks price it, and the two numbers sit side by side below. The priced plays — the safest side, the value bet, the win + kicker combo and the props — are on the members' board; the projection is public, and every pick is graded here after the game.
New Orleans Saints 30 · Detroit Lions 31
Winner called by the model: YES — the projection was Buffalo Bills by 4.1.
| Result | Pick | Price | Our probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | DET ML safest side | -290 | 73.1% |
Graded one unit per bet at the published price, exactly as it appeared on the board before kickoff. The whole week, pick by pick →
Bills 29, Lions 25
Bills by 4.1 · 54 total points
The model projects Buffalo Bills to beat Detroit Lions 29–25; the market agrees on the favorite and prices the spread at 4.5. On the total, the model's 54 sits above the market's 53.5. The raw model gives Buffalo Bills a 63.7% chance to win; the moneyline price implies 65.1%. We never bet the raw model — the published probability on every play blends it with the market, and that blended number is what the board shows members.
A projection is an expected outcome, not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites lose. 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
What the box priced
Every play below carries the blended probability, the price it was published at and the edge over that price. For visitors the plays stay sealed; a free account opens the week's free pick, a membership opens all of it.
| Play | Bet | Price | Our probability | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safest side | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Value bet | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Spread lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Total lean | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Win + kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
| Kicker | ████████ | sealed | sealed | sealed |
Projected stat lines
| Player | Team | Pos | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | DET | QB | ████████████ |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | ████████████ |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | ████████████ |
| Jameson Williams | DET | WR | ████████████ |
| Josh Allen | BUF | QB | ████████████ |
| James Cook | BUF | RB | ████████████ |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | TE | ████████████ |
| DJ Moore | BUF | WR | ████████████ |
This game is a leg in 3 tickets on the board this week: Win + kicker · safest ML + 2 FGs (2 legs, +149); Safe stack · 2 moneylines (2 legs, +172); Safe · 2 games (4 legs, +2654).
See plans — from $19/month monthly or annual; one plan opens every board
Injuries and news the board saw
| Team | Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Dorian Strong CB | Out | Neck |
| BUF | Tyrell Shavers WR | Out | Knee - ACL |
| BUF | Jedrick Wills Jr. OT | Questionable | Back |
| BUF | Jordan Hancock CB | Questionable | Quadricep |
| BUF | T.J. Sanders DE | Questionable | Knee |
| BUF | Ty Johnson RB | Questionable | Hamstring |
| DET | Christian Izien S | Questionable | Groin |
| DET | Christian Mahogany G | Questionable | Hip |
- 😈 Bills' Houston-themed jabs top Week 1 trolls ESPN
- Joey Porter Jr. trade fits: Cowboys, 49ers, Lions could look to add star CB ESPN
- Making sense of Week 1 stats: Williams goes 20-plus mph twice, Kincaid has a day for Bills ESPN
The board rebuilds every morning and again before kickoff, so injuries and line moves feed the numbers above; this page shows the board as last published (2026-09-14).
About this prediction
What is the model's projected score for Lions vs Bills?
Buffalo Bills 29, Detroit Lions 25 — Buffalo Bills by 4.1 points and 54 total points. The market line when the board was built was Buffalo Bills by 4.5 with a total of 53.5.
Who does the model favor to win Lions vs Bills?
Buffalo Bills. The raw model gives them a 63.7% chance; the moneyline price of -192 implies 65.1%. The priced play on this game — the safest side, blended with the market — is on the members' board.
Is this pick guaranteed?
No. A probability is not a promise: the other side happens, and favorites pay short prices for exactly that reason. Black Box Bets is an information service, not a sportsbook; no pick, parlay or strategy is guaranteed to profit, and past results — including the 2018–2025 test — do not predict future ones. Bet only what you can afford to lose, 21+ and only where sports betting is legal.
Other games this week
- Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs Mon Sep 14